Issueless elections- the tragedy of Indian politics

Every election in India (and perhaps elsewhere too) is characterized by some degree of finger-pointing, mudslinging and washing dirty linen in public. But it seems to me that every political party has outdone itself this time. There has been so much rabid talk that it is distressing and even nauseating.

Why can we not have politicians talk about issues that are important to the electorate? Drinking water and sanitation, healthcare, primary education, urban and rural infrastructure, the economy, the threat of terror, energy security and environmental protection, integration with the global economy…. there are so many mega issues we as a nation face.

I ask myself why educated people in their 30s, 40s and even 50s do not enter politics and try to make a real difference. Surely they can bring more energy and enthusiasm than political leaders who are on the wrong side of 60- or even 70! I realize that I am as guilty of this apathy as anyone else… I am like an armchair critic at say a cricket match- it is much easier to sit in the relative comfort of a home and suggest how a batsman should have played a shot (or not) or what the bowler should have done (or not) than actually implement it on the field yourself. I gripe and complain about politicians, their marriages of convenience and their insipid, patently populist election manifestos, but do nothing to see how I can change the system by being a part of it.  But where do I even start? Even people like R K Mishra, who won the Lead India campaign, have chosen to join one of the mainstream, “national” political parties, instead of contesting as an independent candidate. Is anyone listening…?

India wins series in New Zealand

41 years after India’s last win in New Zealand (Tiger Patudi was captain and Gavaskar had not debuted!), the Indian cricket team under Dhoni won a series. The final margin of victory, 1-0 does not do justice to the way the two teams played. 2-1 in favour of India would perhaps have been a fairer result. An obdurate Gambhir stood resolutely between a New Zealand victory and India at the second test in Napier.

Today, however, Vettori and his team had the rain to thank for saving them the blushes of a 2-0 defeat at home. About 3 hours of play did take place on Day 5 and with only 2 Kiwi wickets remaining, Indian fans may be forgiven their dreams of a 2-0 series win.  Sadly, India’s somewhat lackadaisical approach in the last session of the game on Day 4 (knowing that rain was forecast for Day 5) meant that the Kiwis lost only 4 wickets on Day. A fighting Ross Taylor continued to frustrate the Indian bowlers on Day 5, scoring a ton in the process. In annother inspired decision, Dhoni tossed the ball to Sachin, who had not bowled at all in the first two test matches. And as has happened in the past, Sachin got two quick breakthroughs.  With Harbhajan taking wickets at the other end, I daresay an Indian victory would have been certain had we got another hour or so of play (the new ball would have been taken and given Zaheer’s form a couple of wickets would not have been a tall ask). But the fickle weather willed otherwise.

What strikes me most about this series win is that all through the series, the entire team has contributed. They have played as a unit- and the results are there for all to see. Dravid has regained some measure of his confidence and while he was denied a deserving ton in the second test by a poor decision, I am sure he will feel quite satisfied, having scored consistently over 50. The icing on the cake must have been his overtaking Mark Waugh’s record of taking the highest number of catches in the slip.

So in spite of all those fears of seaming tracks and bad memories from 2002-03, India have won quite convincingly in New Zealand.

The players have little time to rest and recuperate before the second edition of the IPL gets underway in South Africa. Not all players will be a part of the IPL- but still, it will be an intense 6 weeks of a different brand of cricket in an environment quite aliet to most of the Indian players. And what makes the IPL even more interesting is that traditional rivals will become team-mates and start lotting the downfall of other traditional team-mates.

Congratulations, Team India- and all the best for future successes.

Phew, that was a close shave…!

After having to follow on, India managed to save the second test match at Napier with a reasonable degree of comfort. While Dravid, Sachin and Yuvraj together scored about 175 runs or so, it was Gautam Gambhir’s tenacious knock of 137 runs that was the bedrock of India’s escape from an ignominous defeat. Gambhir battled the Kiwi attack for 2 days to hold up one end when wickets tended to fall at the other (although in Dravid’s case, it was supposedly a poor decision). What is commendable is the young man’s ability to curb his “natural game” and play the role of a sheet anchor. Of course, just as important was Laxman’s unbeaten knock of 125 runs. Laxman scored his runs at a much brisker pace than Gambhir, and spent less time out in the middle. As always, many of his boundaries bore the hallmark of the touch artist that we know Laxman to be.

Think back to stumps on Day 2 and I’ll wager there weren’t too many out there willing to bet on a drawn match! Vettori and his team were understandably disappointed at having been denied victory. But even in this draw, the Kiwis have proved that they are no pushovers. And that should make the third test at Basin Reserve more keenly contested.

My unrequited advice to Kirsten, Dhoni and the others: get to the venue asap and get used to the conditions!

Will pride go before a fall?

The Indian cricket team has done very well over the course of the past 12-18 months. Both at home and away, they have played well- and won with a high degree of consistency.

But they now find themselves in a pickle. At 79/3 (New Zealand declared its first innings at 619/9), India is in a fairly precarious situation. Sachin, Dravid, Laxman, Yuvraj and Dinesh Kaarthick (Dhoni is injured and hence not playing) will have to play out of their skins and score runs briskly even as they preserve wickets. Conceding a lead of anything more than 100 runs will all but shut out chances of a victory- especially if the pitch starts deteriorating tomorrow.

I was struck by the team’s somewhat casual approach to its preparations. Yes, they had creamed the home side at Hamilton a week ago, but to reach the match venue just 18 hours prior to the start of the match and not getting used to the local conditions through practice smacks of arrogance.  Of course, what matters is how the team plays during the 5 days of the test match and not what it does at the nets- but even so, I thought the Indian team could have shown a little more discipline at Napier.

The price of democracy

As the world’s most populous democracy moves closer to elections, I, as a citizen, am getting more and more worried about the political realignments and constantly changing political calculus.

Regional parties have begun to flex their muscles- which is good- but I worry that the leaders of such parties lack the national (forget global) perspective required to lead India at a particulalrly fragile time in its history. At the state level, regional parties are likely to understand the issues and the solutions better. But at the national level, we need leaders who have the vision and courage of conviction.

I do not mean to imply that leaders of regional parties cannot acquire such vision, or that they are incompetent. My fear is that in the next 2-3 years, when we need really good and deft governance, such regional parties will spend more time in fissiparous squabbles with their numerous coalition partners rather than focus on putting India firmly back on the path to 9+% GDP growth. Foreign policy matters too must be managed adroitly, given the instability looming in Pakistan and President Obama’s policies, that might in act, stoke the fires in the short term.

I sincerely hope that this time round, at least the educated voter will exercise his/her franchise carefully, and with due thought to the likely outcome of his/her vote. What is also needed is for us as a nation to vote- and not just cavil and carp about pathetic politicians and poor policies after we have forfeited our chance to influence who forms the next government.

And finally, I fear that all pre-poll rhetoric and posturing notwithstanding, our shameless netas will not flinch to get into the right beds once the results are announced, in order to consummate their marriages of political convenience.

Varun Gandhi’s purported communal statements

Varun Gandhi denies making the statements he has been accused of making. The statements under question were allegedly made at an election meeting. The Congress and its allies naturally want the Election Commission to disqualify him from contesting the elections. Sections of the BJP and its allies say he said nothing wrong; but other sections within the same BJP feel that he has transgressed a thin line and must be reined in.

Only time will tell if the vitriolic, rabble-rousing statements were indeed made by Varun or if they were “doctored”.  What I do not understand is this: if there was video footage of Varun’s address (and there must be, for all TV channels are carrying it), surely it can be easily established if he did or did not say those hurtful things.

India-New Zealand test series

I write this a few hours before the start of the first test between India and New Zealand. Over the last few weeks, India lost narrowly in the T-20 series, but convincingly won te ODI series. The last ODI match was inconsequential in terms of the series result; however, the manner in which India folded up given seaming, bouncy conditions must have gladdened many a New Zealander’s heart.

For India, the performance with the willow (and the none-too-great bowling effort that followed) must have served as an eye-opener. The pitches on which the previous ODIs were played were a far cry from the monsters they encountered in 2002-03. The Indian top order had a ball, and in the process, piled up runs and agony on the seemingly hapless New Zealanders. But that last match must have caused many in the team to squirm rather uncomfortably in their seats. Of course, the Indians have a brand new middle order in Dravid and Laxman. The conditions at Seddon Park (the winningest ground for the home team) are sure to help seam bowling. And the weathermen predict a sunny start with a chance of rain in the next couple of days. So chances are that the team that wins the toss will bat first.

Here’s hoping for a keenly contested series!

The upcoming elections

As election fever rises across the country, politicians are running around trying to strike alliances and forge “fronts”. As always, getting party tickets to contest the polls is proving to be a messy process.  As election-related dramas unfold in various states and parties (and astrologers make their predictions), I am struck by a sense of despair at the lack of political talent. The same old fogeys with their fossilized views on economics, politics, secularism, foreign policy etc are in the fray. The young turks, of whom I certainly expected much, have disappointed. Many of them did not even attend parliament sessions. As someone said, “in a democracy, people get the government they deserve”. How true!

Of course, instead of carping, I should perhaps approach one of the political parties and see if I can get a ticket. After all, I am well-educated, have a world-view, am reasonably articulate, am high on probity and integrity, and understand the basics of economics and technology. Any thoughts on whether I’ll get a ticket?!

Instability in the neighborhood

Over the last few days, the fledgling democracy in Pakistan has come under severe stress. By banning Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif and imposing Governor’s rule in Punjab, President Zardari has weakened democracy. Not surprisingly, the Sharif brothers are spearheading a mass movement that seems to be spreading.

The situation is a double whammy. On the one hand, the Taliban is seen to be making serious inroads into Pakistan across the Afghan border. Parts of he Swat Valley are already believed to be under Taliban control. On the other hand, the fragile deomocracy is on the verge of collapse. The Army Chief, Gen. Kiyani, has already spoken to President Zardari and virtually served him an ultimatum: bring the country back to order quickly or else…

The bigger threat arising from an unstable Pakistan is the effect this is likely to have not just on India, but also on the world. The Afghanistan-Pakistan border has repeatedly been called out as the hotbed of all terrorist activities. Imagine the conflagration that this tinderbox can cause by an ill-advised terror strike anywhere on earth.

India is busy with her own elections and the current government is a “lame duck” at best. Of course, the reality of coalition politics also means that even if a full-fledged government were in power, there is little that it could have done. It is high time that governments that have some leverage in Pakistan step in and prevent the country from returning to military rule. Should that happen, the whole world will be at even greater risk.

“Cricket, meet terror”

The unthinkable has happened. What many feared in private, but dismissed publicly as unlikely, given the Indian sub-continent’s passion for cricket, happened at Lahore yesterday. Terrorists attacked the bus ferrying the Sri Lankan cricket team to the Gaddafi stadium, injuring 6 or 7 of them and killing 5 of the security guards on duty watching over the visiting team.

The sheer audacity of the attack is chilling. Forget the similarities (or lack thereof) with the Mumbai attacks on Nov 26, 2008. Even more shocking is that any terrorist group would gather the courage to launch such an attack on cricketers- many of whom, in terms of pecking order, rank perhaps only after God.

That the cricketing world has gone into a tailspin is understandable. Questions are being raised about playing in Pakistan, whether the World Cup should be held in the sub continent at all (India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are  the co-hosts) and now even the second edition of the hugely-popular IPL is under a cloud. To be sure, the IPL uncertainty also has to do with the Lok Sabha polls that were announced yesterday. Given that the polls will be held during April-May, the same time as the IPL, the Indian government fears that its security forces will be stretched. But when IPL’s second season will take off also depends on the foreign players actually turning up to play. Already, rumblings have begun, with various Australians, New Zealanders and Englishmen having spoken about their unwillingness to play in India. The sentiments are understandable, but it is important to keep in mind that the terror elements who perpetrated the attack in Lahore, appear to be very well-organized and may well have the wherewithal to execute similar attacks almost anywhere in the world.

When will the global economic malaise end

It is now painfully clear that some parts of the world are in recession. Others, tom-tommed to be the “growth engines” of the world, have started sputtering, with growth estimates halving from what was considered a breze even 6 months ago.

Several nations including the US, UK, Germany and India have initiated “economic stimulus” or “bailout” packages. Interest rates have been cut to make credit available to companies. But there are no conclusive signs yet that we’ve turned the corner or that the worst is behind us. On the contrary, each day brings gloomier news about companies laying off people, announcing 50-100% fall in profits or simply filing for bankruptcy protection. Not surprisingly, the stock markets continue to be volatile, even as the real estate markets threaten to correct further.

Economic pundits around the world are stymied by two key questions:

1. What needs to be done to accelerate the global economy’s exit from this seemingly never-ending morass?
2. How long will it take for the global economy to get back on even keel and start growing again?

I certainly am not an economic pundit and nor do I claim to have the answers to the above questions. However, I think that the solution lies in everybody pulling their weight. While governments structure bailout or stimulus packages and regulators tighten regulatory frameworks to reduce fraud and implementation of investment decisions that go against accepted risk management norms, we as citizens of the countries we live in must play our role too. Pay your taxes on time, do not cut down spending altogether-although by all means, be more cautious and live within your means.And do not believe this mumbo jumbo about India’s economy being decoupled from the rest of the world. Of course, companies must also act responsibly- reduce costs, improve productivity, defer investments/capex without harming competitiveness (especially where such investments will increase the debt and hence interest burden).

And as far as timeframes go, let me add my naive guesstimate to the mix. I think most skletons will come out of the closet during 2009. By this time next year, the market will start believing that the worst is truly behind us. Then the process of rebuilding will start- with central banks walking a fine line betwen driving growth and curbing inflation. The joker in the pack, as always, will be geopolitical stability around the world and the consequent impact on oil prices.

Federer vs Nadal

I was hoping Federer would win the Australian Open today and equal Pete Sampras’ record of 14 Grand Slam titles. Sadly, that was not to be. In a hard-fought 5 setter, a younger, fitter Rafael Nadal got the better of Roger Federer (7-5, 3-6, 7-6, 3-6, 6-2) in a match that lasted nearly 4.5 hours.But I have to confess that “Rafa” was awesome. His fierce cross-court returns, top-spinning slices and volleys won him the day. And keep in mind that he played the finals one day after another 5 hour semi-final where he was extended by compatriot Fernando Verdasco (Nadal won 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-7, 6-4).

I have not seen Federer teary-eyed before and at some level, it was gut-wrenching to see a champion of his stature and class crying. But what struck me even more was Nadal’s empathetic response: at the award ceremony, he began by saying “sorry for today”- that he was sorry for having beaten Federer and denying him his 14th Grand Slam.Nadal went on to say that Federer is a champion and that he would equal Sampras’ record soon.

Here’s wishing Federer his 14th Grand Slam in 2009- and “Rafa” many more successes in the years ahead.

Australian cricket team’s crisis of confidence

Ever since the retirement of McGrath, Warne and Gilchrist (and Justin Langer) in somewhat quick succession, the Australian cricket team has lost its cutting edge. Hayden’s recent retirement and Symond’s self-destructive moves haven’t helped either.

New talent has been blooded and in another year or so, Australia will have rebuilt its team. There is talent aplenty in the Husseys, Shaun Marsh, Michael Clarke, Mitchell Johnson and many others. But after the India tour and the recent loss to South Africa in both the test and ODI series, the Australian team’s self-confidence has been low. Even in today’s ODI match against New Zealand, Australia steadily lost wickets and ended up with a below-par 181 runs. But what was important was that they were unable to defend the total, although they did make early in-roads into the New Zealand innings (and there were a couple of bad umpiring decisions).

There have been flashes of dominance but of late,  the legendary team cohesiveness and “never-say-die” attitude that kept Australia at the top for more than 15 years, have been conspicuous by their absence, for the most part.

Republic Days are not the same anymore

As a child (age 5-15) and even during the next decade, I remember the joy and enthusiasm with which my friends and I used to watch the Republic Day parade and celebrations. Somehow, the sight of those advanced weapons being displayed used to instil a sense of confidence and security, although I remember asking my father when I was 10 or 11 years old whether it was a good idea to display our military might so openly. My naive mind assumed that enemy powers waited for our Republic Day parades to figure out what defence systems we had!

Today, I am older- and wiser- and realize that the  “intelligence networks” work 24×7, 365 days a year to try and keep our country safe. And therein lies the irony. As a nation, we still display our weapons systems at Rajpath. But as a people, our sense of security is far lower now than it was 15 or 20 years ago. Terrorists are trying to outsmart security forces and the “intelligence” agencies. Even this morning, 2 suspected terrorists were killed in UP, supposedly trying to enter Delhi in time to unleash terror and mayhem tomorrow.

Although we as a nation have made creditable strides in many areas, the basic sense of unalloyed pride and joy at our progress is marred by a veil of fear.

Satyam: the best way forward

Once the new 10-member Board is in place, it will be time for debate and discussion on the future of Satyam. Does it make sense to run it as a going concern or is it likely to be better for shareholders and employees if the entire company or parts thereof are sold to various investors?

Fictitious balance sheet or not, let us not forget that till a month or so ago, when the spectacular fall from grace began with Ramalinga Raju’s Maytas merger misadventure, Satyam was seen as one of the top India-based IT services companies. Its client base included several blue chips around the world, with many of whom, Satyam has multi-year contracts. Of course, the UPAID litigation and the blacklisting by The World Bank did cause some damage to Satyam’s reputation and business prospects. But even so, it is probably attractive to someone like Anil Ambani or Sunil Bharti Mittal to consider acquiring Satyam. Doing so gives them a skilled employee base of 50,000 people, ongoing contracts, well-established processes and a global delivery footprint. All these are vital elements for any company aspiring to become a big player in the global IT services space.

Existing IT services players- especialy from India- would be happy to acquire specific business units- for instance, Tech Mahindra, which has a strong telecom practice, may benefit from taking over Satyam’s large Communications/ Media /Entertainment practice. An L&T Infotech, on the other hand, may prefer to acquire Satyam’s BFSI or Manufacturing business unit. Satyam’s strong SAP practice would be very attractive to IBM, Accenture,  or even Cognizant or Patni. And although HCL is burdened by the debt it took on to fund its recent acqusition of Axon, think of the phenomenal synergy it could derive in the ERP/SAP space by buying out that group from Satyam. Axon acts as the “front end”, while the Satyam SAP practice becomes the “back end” engine.

But I am sure this is exactly the kind of thinking that deal-makers from I-banks and advisory firms must be engaged in. To paraphrase Shakespeare’s Macbeth, “if it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well it  were done quickly”. Speedy action alone will help alleviate at least some of the misery Satyam’s investors, employees and clients are facing.

Let me just sit back and see how this story plays out in the weeks and months ahead.