Anand Krishna’s musings

As the stock price of Reliance Industries continues its rapid ascent, it brings its chairman, Mukesh Ambani, that much closer to becoming the “richest man in the world”. It is not possible to get a 100% accurate picture of Bill Gates’ wealth or Warren Buffett’s net worth. But be they what they may, there is no denying that an Indian is pretty darn close to being acknowledged as the wrld’s richest man. The title may not sit well with Mukesh (and RIL has already taken pains to let the media know that the estimate of Mukesh Ambani’s wealth may be inaccurate). But India’s galloping stock markets and the oh-so-close race for Mukesh to rightfully claim his spot as the “world’s richest man” are surely a “chak de India” moment. Don’t you agree?

Indian cricket has for long been bedeviled by strange things; Dravid being dropped (or should that be “rested”?) is the latest. Yes, it is true that in the recent series at home against Australia, “the wall” looked very ordinary- his highest score was a patchy 31, if memory serves me right. But anyone who has scored more than 10,000 ODI runs in the international arena must be phenomenally lucky or blessed with a world-class combination of technique, talent and temparament. I think in Dravid’s case, we can safely rule out luck.

It is the selectors’ prerogative to select the national team-and presumably, by recalling Virender Sehwag (at the cost of Dravid), they believe that the 15 players they have selected, represent India’s best. That may well be true. In any case, it appears at this time that Dravid has been dropped for only the first two ODIs against Pakistan.

Especially in a psychologically difficult series- Pakistan in India- the opposition may well benefit from the security of knowing that a defiant Rahul Dravid does not stand between an all-too familiar top-order collapse (by India) and hence, Pakistan’s victory. Of course, this scenario assumes the all-too familiar situation that India have found themselves in more often than not. In this one sense alone, I think dropping Dravid was inadvisable. But it is equally possible that the top-order clicks, and newcomers like Badrinath demonstrate the same solidity and panache against a resurgent Shoaib Akhtar and co that one would have expected from an in-form Rahul Dravid. And if that happens, the selectors will have been proved right (or at least, not proved wrong). And that may well end the career of one of India’s most consistent batsmen of the last decade. If that comes to pass, it would truly be a pity, for Dravid surely deserves better.

It has been more than a week since Ricky Ponting’s Australians have returned home after a 4-2 ODI victory against India in India. Of course, they also lost the only T20 match played.

India is scheduled to travel to Australia in a few weeks. During the intervening period, India hosts Pakistan, while Australia will play Sri Lanka at home. On current form, these 4 are perhaps among the more competitive teams- and so the next couple of months promise to be a cricket fan’s delight. Which team will win by what margin is not something I am going to speculate on at this time.

However, what is noteworthy is that the Australians have alraedy begun their mindgames. Ponting has already said that his team has plans for Muralitharan- arguably one of the best spinners in world cricket today, but someone who has always had a rough time Down Under- thanks to a powerful combination of umpiring decisions, taunts by crowds, and on-field sledging.

That the Indian team has played a lot of cricket- maybe even too much of it- since it left for its tour of England some months ago is not an exaggeration. But Dhoni’s reported statements about the tiredness of the Indian team even before it reaches Australia’s shores may be (mis) construed as the Indian captain attempting to “set expectations” among the country’s fans so that  possible poor performance is condoned. I think this will only give the Aussies an opportunity to use mindgames even more effectively against an Indian team that will assuredly contain some new faces.

Sreesanth has been placed under pressure even before he bowls his first delivery on the tour of Australia by McGrath’s statement about him having to perform. Personally, I think Sree will relish the bouncy tracks in Australia and this new crop of Indian bowlers can give back as good as they get. But only if they channelize their emotional energy and anger into bowling better line and length.

Meanwhile, here’s wishing the Indian team good luck against Pakistan- a tour that starts next week. But as always, may the better team win.

Maybe Sri Lanka will soften up the Aussies for us…..

As the sabre-rattling by both major partners of the UPA coalition ratcheted up several notches over the past several weeks, my first reactions were of anger and disgust- that these two parties are bringing the country to the brink of expensive elections- rather than use the remainder of their term in government to drive more reforms and spur growth.

But today, as I listened to an expert on sustainability say that India and China alone will contribute hundreds of thousands of CO2 emissions every year once all their coal-based power generating units go on stream, my reaction has turned to one of more fear than anger.

I now feel that the shenanigans that have led to all but the formal cancellation of the “123 agreement” have harmed India far more than I previously thought. Energy is needed for growth and development of our nation. And lower the cost of this energy, better for us as a nation. “Low cost” not just in terms of the purchase price paid for the raw materials and power generation/distribution- but also in the sense of the environmental costs- carbon footprint, other pollution, enormous water consumption etc.

I do not know the relative economics of thermal power vs nuclear power. But I think the latter is much cheaper. But unless we get access to the technology to develop even safer and better nuclear power plants, we risk a lot more by expanding our nuclear energy generation. There is also the ticklish issue of procuring nuclear fuel to run these power plants.

I confess that I also do not know the details of the proposed deal with the US. There may well be clauses that are inimical to our national interests- and not for one moment am I suggesting we sacrifice these interests on the altar of ideology (or any other altar for that matter). All I am saying is that the Left should have engaged with the Congress to see if a negotiated agreement is possible. The Left should have gone public with exactly what its objections are and why the deal is against Indian interests, rather than take shelter behind the all-encompassing cloak of “ideology”, as it seems to have done. For that matter, even the Chinese are planning to produce 40,000 MW of nuclear power in the next 4 years or so. And the Russians have been producing nuclear fuel for decades (Chernobyl notwithstanding).

So does the Left really care for the people? Go figure….

In the last two days, India’s benchmark stockmarket index, the BSE Sensex, has reacted quite strongly to the Securities & Exchange Board of India’s  kite-flying attempts to bring in regulations that will moderate stcok market inflows through Promissory Notes (P Notes or PNs). This sentiment is understandable, because the proposed changes will, when implemented, control the inflow of (foreign) capital into our bourses.  But it is important to note that at this time, only the intent of such regulation has been announced; the actual decision may be taken next week and the winding down may take upto 2 years. And over the past few months, the gravity-defying climb of the Sensex has had more to do with “liquidity” (too much money chasing too few good stocks) than to do with the fundamentals of the company issuing the stock. And therefore, any attempts to keep out such inflows will naturally quell demand and price equilibrium wil be achieved at a lower price point.

But how does one factor into the equation what is perhaps just as big a concern for the government? I am referring to the growing concern abou terror finances being routed and laundered through India’s stock markets. Using PNs, it becomes easier for terror outfits (or even individuals desirous of contributing to such causes) to invest in the buoyant Indian equity markets, make a kiling, and use the profits to finance terror. Yes, KYC (Know Your Customer) requirements do exist- but with registered FIIs, transparency is perhaps higher than it can be with PNs.

For years, economists used to conveniently treat environmental costs as “externalities”; in the past several years, they have been forced to make it a tangible part of their analyses. Perhaps the time has come to take a new look at terrorism and how it is insidiously embedding itself into mainstream economies- and take proactive steps to measure the risk to our global society. And once this hapens, perhaps stock prices will reflect “terror risk”, in addition to economic, political and environmental risks. Maybe a Nobel Prize is waiting for the one who figures out how “terror risk” can be measured.

I think the Future Cup ODI series that ended yesterday is India’s worst ever home series- and not just because of our cricketing performance. We’ve been walloped before but what is distressing on this occasion is the persistence of issues related to spectators taunting the Australian players and the verbal exchanges on the field between Team India and Team Australia.

India has always prided itself in treating its guests well- remember the ancient Sanskrit saying “atithi devo bhava”- which means “guests are like Gods”? For the good part of the past 30 years, the Australians have  been known for their banter on the field that often borders on the offensive. It may be labeled “aggression”, or it may be accepted as “the way the Aussies play cricket”- but this is not what we expect from India. If we stoop to their levels, what, then, is the difference between us and them?

Many may see nothing wrong with this “eye for an eye” policy that our younger cricketers are adopting. After all, isn’t that, in some way, the “chak de India” philosophy? Remember the hockey player from Punjab, who, in the movie “Chak de India”, is quite willing to fight fire with fire, and takes on the Argentine hockey team at their own rough, “physical” style of the game?

Call me soft or old-fashioned. But I still think that competing in sports should be based on skill (and fitness, endurance, temperament and so on) and not abusing or going beyond the normally accepted boundaries of the game.

I am sure this animosity will carry on into the series we play in Australia in a couple of months. Symonds has in fact already upped the ante and has warned Team India to expect a “searing summer” when they visit Australia.

I think the way Uthappa, Harbhajan, Zaheer and Murali Karthik batted yesterday is the kind of stuff needed to counter any verbal assaults. Breet Lee said something to Zaheer, who responded with a well-timed six off the very next delivery. Didn’t that shut Lee up?

I hope the Pakistan series and the few weeks before Team India sets foot Down Under will cool tempers down- or at least channelize the team’s energy to playing a superior game of cricket and not get dragged into energy- and focus-sapping verbal duels on and off the field.

Allan Border has already said what he thinks of Symonds’ outbursts and I would be quite interested in knowing what Sunil Gavaskar has to say as well. I hope media on both sides does not keep this fire kindled to serve their vested interests- for them, it a game of TRPs and readership and not cricket.

And for what it’s worth, I also appeal to fellow Indians fortunate to be able to watch the T20 match live in Mumbai on Saturday to be on their best behaviour. Remember that the entire nation will be judged by what the rest of the world sees. And media will be gleefully watching out for anything that can be portrayed as racially motivated.

Good luck to both teams and as always, may the better team on the day triumph.

Andrew Symonds has probably been the one diference between the two teams in this series. Of course, Matthew Hayden did his bit with the bat and held on to catches and so on but to me, it was Symonds who stood out.

Yes, he was involved in plenty of verbal exchanges on the ground (and was quite vocal about his opinions off the field also), but in the final analysis,  his willow spoke much louder and with more telling impact. Each innings he played has demonstrated aggression, the intent to dominate the bowler, and above all, his supreme stroke-making ability. Of course, ever so often, there was a generous dollop of luck as well (he was dropped by Sreesanth today when he had scored just 2. Perhaps the result may have been very different had that catch been held). But as they say, even Fortune favours only the brave.

I am sure the name-calling that allegedly hapened in Vadodara must have only spurred him on to greater heights. He has promised Team India a torrid summer Down Under and I for one will not be surprised if he does become one of our principal tormentors when our team visits Australia.

I must also admit that I continue to be dismayed by our brittle middle order. Granted that Hogg bowled well- but surely Dravid and Yuvraj both gifted their wickets away; the bowler did not earn it.

I know the crowd were disappointed at India’s loss- but Indian cricket fans have always been discerning and have applauded a good game. The better team has won the series and I certainly expected the specators at the stadium to give the victors a bigger round of applause. I must say I was disappointed at the silence that greeted Ponting and Symonds (who won the “Man of the Match” award). And even if the allegations of “racial slurs” being hurled at Symonds at Vadodara are baseless (and probably were the result of a misunderstanding arising from ignorance of local languages/culture), I think we as a nation could have given a better account of ourselves. Applauding the Australians today would have gone a long way in demonstrating our spirit and to prove that we hold no rancour. Sadly, an opportunity was lost. I hope cricket fans in Mumbai will make amends.

Until quite recently, Bollywood movies were promoted on TV mainly through trailers and music videos. And of course, there were always interviews with the stars and so on. But a new trend has begun in the last few months (at least it has become apparent to me only recently). This involves using music shows on TV to promote new films. Producers, Music Directors and actors turn up as judges on these talent shows and talk about their upcoming films. The participating singers are asked to sing songs from the new films. With Sawariya (which is reportedly the first Bollywood movie to be made with a big name Hollywood studio asociated- Sony), movie merchandise is to be launched (a la Batman or Harry Potter tee shirts, outfits, mugs, caps and what have yous).

This concept of “bundling” is quite appealing because of its win-win nature- the TV channels get additional “content”, while the producers/actors get airtime on prime time national TV to promote their movies. It would be interesting to study the effect of such marketing on the success of films… perhaps some reader may find the time and inclination to embark on such a study. If one of you does decide to do such a study, please post your findings on this blog!

Media reports in India state that Ricky Ponting asked his team mates to be extra wary of India in tomorrow’s match because the Indian team, like many others, plays well when they have their backs to the wall. He also reportedly said something to the effect that India will come out and enjoy their cricket because they have nothing to lose.

I think Punter is wrong. India does have a lot to lose- starting from their newly earneed reputation of being “World Champions” (albeit in a different form of the game). They also risk losing their reputation of being hard to beat at home- a reputation that most teams from the sub-continent have built over the years. But over the last few weeks, both Sri Lanka and Pakistan have found it hard to live up to that reputation against England and South Africa respectively. And not least, the Indian cricket team stands to lose its self confidence just before three months of very tough cricket ahead- a home series against Pakistan, followed immediately by an away series in Australia. Also at stake for the Indian cricket team is the recently renewed trust of the Indian fans, which is fickle at the best of times.

I only hope the Indian team will show the spunk necessary to win the game tomorrow, thus keeping the series- and interest in the last match- alive.

Till a decade or so ago, topics such as global warming, greenhouse effect, ozone layer depletion, sustainable development and so on were usually the preserve of academics and researchers or the very passionate members of organizations such as Green Peace, Ecowatch and so on. By and large, businesses did not care much- unless there was an Exxon Valdez kind of mess or a disaster like the Bhopal gas tragedy.

But in the last 10 years or so, there has been a marked increase in people’s awareness. Even ordinary citizens have begun to realize that their lives are getting impacted. The environment is no longer “somebody else’s problem”. In Indian cities for instance, reliable potable water supply is proving to be a bigger problem with each passing day. Bore wells are drying up and new bores need to be sunk to several hundred feet to reach water- adding to the cost. The same citizens are also business leaders and investors- and are worried at the alarming rate of depletion of resources and spiralling energy costs- for this hurts profits and stock market performance. Automobile companies like Honda and Toyota are in fact actively positioning themselves as companies that care for the environment (eco-friendly hybrid cars, hydrogen fuel cell based vehicles). Petroleum majors such as BP and Shell are talking more and more about alternative energy sources. Enormous amounts of money are being spent on developing cars that run on alternative energy sources.  “Green” manufacturing and “green IT” is now “in”.

I also think that environmental protection is one area where judicial activism is called for. The Supreme Court of India should direct state governments to bring in legislation that bans buses, trucks and cars that are older than say, 15 years. I am told that fuel efficiency norms will become law in the next 18-24 months. In other words, car manufacturers have to guarantee a certain mileage in their models- and can be sued for non-compliance! As a consumer, I am delighted….. if this does indeed become law, automobile makers can no longer boldly claim “unrivalled mileage” of 15 Km/l (or whatever other figure) and get way with a litle “*” as the superscript that says “under test conditions”. I’d really like to know how many of us drive daily in “test conditions”?!

I was quite proud of the little kids in our apartment complex in Bangalore, who went door to door last summer, asking the residents to conserve water, make sure their taps don’t leak and not keep their faucets running when they brushed their teeth or shaved. It is this kind of a mass movement that our earth needs. Not just in Bangalore, but across India. Not just in India, but around the world.
At home, we as a family are very conscious about power and water consumption and always look for ways to reduce wasteful consumption. For relatively short distances, we walk instead of driving.  We recycle paper- paper blank on one side is quite handy for writing lists or messages for each other. My 10 year old daughter understands enough about the hole in the ozone layer, melting polar ice caps and the impact of such phenomena on the rain-fed Himalayan rivers and eventually, on each of us. My wife and I use every posible opportunity to teach our daughter about the imperative for environmental protection and to get her to be more sensitive towards our environment.

We strongly believe that each one of us can play an important part in preserving our earth. I urge all of you to become more environmentaly conscious in your everyday living. Start today- remember, better late than never. And don’t delay lest it becomes a case of too little too late.

Former US vice president Al Gore and the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were declared as winners of the 2007 Nobel Peace prize earlier today.

The prize recognizes their efforts to create awareness about the dangers of man-made climate change and to lay the foundations for combating it.

It is heartening that the world is becoming more concerned about the dangers we are creating for ourselves and our children (and our aging parents as well).

To paraphrase from the preface to Al Gore’s book, we have not inherited the earth from our forefathers; we are merely custodians for our future generations. If each one of us can remember this and do whatever we can, in oue own small way- the world will be around for much longer than is currently likely. On that sombre note, congratulations Mr Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

I started blogging exactly a month ago. In the last 30 days, I have become quite addicted to blogging. I find it quite cathartic, as I can express my views and depending on what I write about, it helps get things out of my system.

In the last month, I wrote about various topics- cricket, the economy, the “chak de” revolution that is sweeping India, outsourcing and many other things. As I am sure readers have made out, I write on an eclectic blend of topics. I vividly remember when someone first responded to one of my posts (it was on what India should do to preserve its edge in outsourcing). I view my blog “dashboard” at least once a day and feel happy or sad depending on how many people have viewed my blog, posted comments etc.

I have had close to 375 views in my first month and I am told by people far more experienced than I (as far as blogging goes) that this is in fact a pretty decent performance. I am grateful to all of you who have read my writings and to all those that have not- please do!

I also invite you to share your comments on my blog.

Marion Jones, move over. The Indian stock markets are on steroids…. and how! In less than 2 years, the Sensex (BSE index) has more than doubled- from around 9000 in November 2005 to 18658 today (October 10, 2007)- a 100% increase.

Here is how the Sensex has risen over the past decade or so. To put things in perspective, during the same period, the Dow Jones index (a measure of the performance of index stocks on the NYSE) moved roughly from about 11,000 to around 14,000- about a 27% increase.

Unsurprisingly, emerging economies such as India have been the darling of the international investment community for some years now. But the multi-billion dollar question is how long this bull run will continue. If there are n analysts, there are likely to be 2n opinions, because each one will talk through both sides of his/her mouth. Shorn of jargon such as “economic funamentals”, “market sentiment”, “attractive valuations”, “robust growth earnings”, “India growth story” and the like, nobody really knows!

But clearly, the stellar performance of our equity markets is another reason to say “chak de India”!

I have, in my previous blogs, written about the dangers of raising the Indian team to the skies after their commendable T20 world championship win. My point is simple: celebrate the achievement, for it is to be cherished. But do not assume that one swallow will herald summer. So do not delude youself that this one victory guarantees a string of future wins. Playing Australia anywhere, anytime is not easy. At home in India, the cricket team- and especially the new captain M S Dhoni- have to bear the added burden of the Indian fans’ expectations- raised all the higher by the team’s sterling performance in the T20 tournament in South Africa.

Not surprisingly, two back-to-back losses to the Australians at home have upset Indian cricket fans and today, even the chairman of the selectors, Dilip Vengsarkar, got into the act, using the media to convey poorly veiled threats to the “senior” players in the team- shape up and perform or ship out. To my mind, such admonition should have been in the confines of the dresing room or at the team strategy meeting before the next game, and not in the media. But hey, that’s just my thinking.

I think the real problem is caused by a combination of lack of talent, inaequate physical fitness and endurance and perhaps most importantly, gaps in the players’ mental toughness. Don’t get me wrong- some of our players are very talented. But sadly, they lack the fitness and endurance neded to deliver peak performance throughout the 100 overs of an ODI (or 5 days of a test match). Since T20 is a shorter duration game, the lack of fitness is not as apparent (or harmful) as in the longer versions of the game. But the best talent can come to nought if the players don’t believe at all times that they can win. The opposition batsmen may be scoring at will- but don’t give up and ease the pressure. Your batsmen may be tied up in knots by the opposition bowlers and you may have just scored 2 runs in the last 2 overs with an asking rate of 6 runs per over. But there is no need to panic. A couple of good hits to the boundary and your team is back in the game. More importantly, you have sent a signal to the opposition- we are not going to roll over. We are here for a good fight and by God, we will give it to you! Keeping one’s head is critical especially when people around you are losing theirs (to borrow from Rudyard Kipling’s famous poem “If”-which, by the way, is one of my favourite poems). If you have not read this poem before this, check it out at http://www.kipling.org.uk/poems_if.htm

The bottom line- To win constently, you cannot rely only on verve (talent). To win, the team also needs nerve.

I’ve been thinking of the top 5 things I’d like us as a nation to stop doing, to make the country a much better place to live in. In other words, my top choices for things India should “chuck de” would be:

1. Using roads as a trash can, spittoon or worse- as bathrooms. Even the “educated” citizens of our country indulge in such disgraceful behaviour. How often have you seen trash been thrown out of a car?! Just as bad, have you seen people nonchalantly blow their nose and “wipe” their hands on whatever happens to be close by? Ugh!
2. Not sticking to lines at public places- including when waiting to board a flight or getting off. For God’s sake, if you have checked in, the flight will not take off without you on board!
3. Interrupting someone else in the middle of his/her sentence. Strangely, this is just as common in the corporate world as anywhere else in the country.
4. Talking at the top of your voice on your mobile phone- especially when you are in a public place. Trust me when I say that most people around you couldn’t really care about the stuff you are talking about.
5. Demonstrating basic driving discipline- sticking to one’s lane, respecting the concept of “right of way”, realizing that the logjam resulting from everyone breaking the rules will impact everyone. And I would be remiss if I did not mention treating pedestrians with some respect (and vice versa as well- how many jaywalkers have you seen trying to cross the road simply by showing a lazy palm to oncoming traffic)? And of course, realizing that honking is not actually required for the vehicle to move. Sometimes, I strongly believe that honking is a reflex action triggered by the driver’s breathing or some such activity- given how regularly drivers in India honk- even without provocation.