Anand Krishna’s musings

I write this with India needing 32 runs to beat Pakistan in the first Test Match at Delhi. With 7 wickets remaining and one full day in which to score the runs, I hope I am forgiven for assuming that victory is ours- of course, it requires only 7 good deliveries to destroy the dreams of millions of Indian cricket fans.

I  think Kumble has marshalled his resources very well. He has led from the front, as captains are expected to. He has resisted the temptation to over- or under-bowl himself, and has rung in some imaginative (and successful) bowling changes. Even with the bat, he made a pretty decent contribution of 24 runs in the first innings. And if India does win the match, remember that we did so without the fire-power of RP Singh and Sreesanth.

All told, I think Kumble has acquitted himself very well as captain. It is too early to pass judgment (which is exactly what I have done!)- but I think he has earned the right to be retained as captain for the tour of Australia. Kumble has been quite successful against the Australians and given the rancour that was on display between the two sides when he Aussies toured India in Sept/Oct, one does need a cool head and a strong mind to lead the charge.

But then, it is probably easier to time the stock market than it is to try and guess what our selectors are thinking about the team’s composition. In the past, players like Mohinder Amarnath, Robin Singh and Sadagopan Ramesh were not given as many chances as they deserved… so who knows what lies ahead? And if Kumble does get the nod, it would be just as interesting to see how much faith he reposes on Yuvraj Singh as a test match player.

Time was when Indians only had hand-me-down car designs from the west. The Ambassador was based on a Vauxhall design from the 1950s (if not earlier), while the Fiat (and subsequently the Premier) was based on Fiat’s old designs. Both these car-makers had just one basic model and “new models” only meant cosmetic changes to the grille or tail lights or maybe the seating.  Little wonder that Maruti, which was born in the early 1980s, and after about 10 years of focusing on 2-3 models, began launching a new model every 4-5 years, was a big hit.

Things changed swiftly in the last 10 years or so, with many more global car makers setting up shop in India and launching new models almost every year. But even so, not every carmaker offered new models on every car. India was labelled a “small car” market.

Now, automobile manufacturers around the world have begun focusing on small, fuel-efficient cars because oil prices at $100/barrel and steadily climbing will make gas-guzzlers unafordable. And also, there is the worry around emissions and global warming. Even if individual cars reduce emissions because of better engines and fuel, the sheer increase in the number of cars means an alarming rise in the world’s carbon footprint.

But what this has done for India-which is expected to be one of the largest markets for small cars- is to embolden car-makers enough to launch new models in India BEFORE anywhere else in the world. So far, only Hyundai has done this with its i10, but I am sure the trend will catch on. Surely another chak de milestone for India!

India is a large country and often, people focus on the differences between East and West or North and South. But in one tragic sense, the entire country is truly unfied. No matter which large- or for that  matter, small- city of India you live in, you are sure to encounter horrific traffic snarls.

To be sure, the spate of flyovers constructed in Mumbai over the past 10 years have eased congestion. And the wide roads in the NCR area may make it look like there are no traffic jams there. Bangalore, of course, is known just as much for its crumbling infrsatructure (mainly roads), as it is for being the cradle of India’s IT & ITES industries.

The trick that all our policy planners  missed- or perhaps their advice was ignored- was the need to build high quality, high speed mass transit systems, with multi-modal integration. Put simply, what our cities need are London-style “tube” trains and a high frequency of US city-style buses. That would have helped ease congestion on the roads, as more people would have chosen to leave their vehicles at home.

The launch of the $3000 cars is only going to exacerbate the situation. Not just in terms of traffic density and congestion, but also in terms of expanding our carbon footprint. Perhaps it is time to view “progress” using a diferent lens- and measure it with a different measure.

India got off to a great start in the test match series against Pakistan at Delhi . Kumble’s loss of the toss did not seem a disadvantage, as Zaheer, Munaf and Kumble soon had the visitors teetering on 83/5. The visitors continued their downhill slide to reach 142/8. But Misbah and Sami played very sensibly and have brought the team to a respectable 210/8 at stumps on Day One.

Not having watched the match, I do not know if there are any devils in the track, or our bowling was simply terrific or whether the Pakistani batsmen played loose shots and got out. But the bottom line is that we had them on the mat, but were unable to complete the formalities. Depending on how much longer their tail continues to wah tomorrow morning, we may just have allowed them to claw themselves back into the game. But kudos to Sami and Misbah for a dour but doughty performance. Misbah has shown great temperament and is well on track to become a key player as Pakistan rebuild their cricket team in the months and years ahead.

In spite of the recent volatility, Indian stock markets have registered the best performance in the world (in terms of returns over the past 3 months). This is according to analysis by the firm MSCI Barra.

Indian stock markets have delivered returns of over 33% (in USD terms). About 5% lower are returns from the second best markets of Qatar and Egypt.  Of the developed countries, Spain and Hong Kong delivered returns of about 18% (a tad more than half of our returns), while advanced economies like the US, Japan etc. have yielded negative returns.

Another chak de moment for India!

Read more at:

 http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Market_Analysis/India_Worlds_best_performing_stock_market/articleshow/2559788.cms

According to the second Asia Pacific Wealth report published by Merrill Lynch and Cap Gemini,  the number of High Net Worth Individuals (HNIs) in India increased by 20% in 2006 to touch 100,000. About 0.85% of them are Ultra HNIs (people with net worth in excess of US$30M). A majority of the HNIs are in the 41-55 year bracket.

So who is an HNI? The study defines an HNI as someone with net financial assets of at least US$1 Milion (excluding their primary residence).

To put things  in context, Asia Pacific is home to just over 27% of the world’s HNI population and India is the second-fastest growing HNI population in Asia Pacific.

Another chak de moment for India….. is it not?

Om Shanthi Om is a terrific marketing concept. The story (inasmuch as there is one), has been cleverly woven so as to allow the film to straddle two generations- people who are today in their 30s and 40s, and those who are in the 10-25 age group. The former’s curiosity will be piqued by the throwback to the 70s and 80s, while the latter will want to gawk at Shah Rukh’s “6 packs” and/or at the lovely Deepika Padukone. So either way, the tickets get sold out! And hence my comment about this being a great marketing concept.

In addition, the producer/director have spent significant efforts and time in promoting the film. Om Shanthi Om cleverly utilized song/dance shows on TV to create a buzz (as did Saawariya, to be fair). In many cases, the competition involved singing and dancing to the film’s songs. Farah, SRK, Deepika and other members of the cast were present at these shows to encourage the contestants and talk about the movie. The TRPs for these shows went up because SRK et al would be on them, which means the channels loved it as well. All in all, a win-win strategy. [Saawariya, being a Sony production, was probably able to get more coverage on TV (with the name displayed right below the Sony logo)].

As for the film itself, well, enough reviews have been written and I do not intend to add to them. However, I will say this- OSO is a potboiler with all the right ingredients- catchy music, lots of big names, big dreams, costumes and lots of dancing.

Enjoy the movie. And if you’ve watched Saawariya, let us have your comments on how you think the two movies compare.

Almost 20 years ago, when Mohinder (Jimmy) Amarnath called the then group of selectors of the BCCI, a “bunch of jokers”, he made history. Nobody in his right mind would dare take on the powerful cricketing establishment that is the BCCI. And yet, Mohinder did exactly that, to protest his exclusion from the team that, ironically enough, was to tour Australia (if memory serves me right).

Rahul Dravid is too much of a gentleman to give vent to his emotions- although in private, I am sure he does not disagree with Amarnath’s 1988 assessment.

This malaise of labeling selectors as “jokers” seems to be spreading. The latest is Marvan Atapattu of Sri Lanka, who refers to the Sri Lankan selectors as “muppets” and the Chairman of the committee as a “joker”.

With so many “jokers” around, I wonder who will have the last laugh?!

India lost to Pakistan by 4 wickets in the 2nd ODI of the series (chasing a total of 322 to win in 50 overs, Pakistan reached the target with a ball to spare). This loss at Mohali makes the next 3 games even more interesting, with series evenly poised.

Today’s game will remain etched in my memory for several reasons- some good, some bad:

Kudos to the curator Daljit Singh. The pitch was amazing- having yielded close to 650 runs in a day-night match. A special chemical was sprayed along the outfield, to reduce the impact of dew. It afforded something both to the bowlers and strokemakers.

1. It was a cracker of a match- ideal for the Diwali season- except that as a supporter of Indian cricket, I wish the result had been in our favor. Oh well…
2. Sachin played an absolutely fabulous innings and I am sure many hearts around the world were broken when he lost yet another chance to add to his tally of 41 ODI centuries. Today was the second time in 2007 that he got out at 99. And if he had converted the other 5 or 6 chances this year (he got out in the 90s on all those occasions- and in fact, twice before this on 99 in 2007 alone), he would have been in striking distance of 50 ODI centuries. It would also have widened the gap between him and Ponting, who looks sure to overtake Sachin as the game’s highest century maker in the next 12 months, if not earlier.
3. India’s middle order collapse, with Dhoni, Uthapa and Irfan Pathan all doing poorly. Thus it was that in spite of the solid platform built by Sachin and Gambhir, we ended up perhaps 35-40 runs short of what was expected even when Sachin departed. Yuvraj also did not exactly set the stadium on fire today with his batting (he also dropped a couple of difficult catches).
4. Younis Khan’s amazing ability to ramp up his scoring rate from well below 50% in the first 15-20 overs to over 100% by the time he finished with a century.
5. Afridi’s assault on Zaheer Khan in the 48th over- which probably was the most crucal truning point of the game.
6. The amazing nmber of extras conceded by both sides (especially in the form of wides).
7. India’s continued inability to tighthen the screws in the last 6-7 overs; our poor bowling in the “death overs” has now been haunting us for several series.
8. The nonchalance with which Dhoni spoke about the loss in the post-match interview.

Two movies, made by some of the biggest names in Bollywood are set to open on Friday. Both movies have spent fairly sizable sums of money on their marketing. So which one is likely to be the bigger box office success? It’s a tough call, but methinks Saawariya may just have an edge over say, a 3-4 week period. I say this because almost everyone I know at work is planning to watch “OSO” and though this number is a small sample, I fear that the weight of people’s expectations might do OSO in when it comes to staying power. The throwback to the 70s/80s may not appeal to the younger generation. I am out on a limb when I say all this, of course, but then that’s my view. Time will tell how right I was… meanwhile, chip in with your views as well.

Enjoy the movies- and I hope you watch both of them.

India’s win yesterday at Guwahati in the first of the five match ODI series against Pakistan will surely boost the team’s spirits. After all, a win under one’s belt is always nice; even better, it puts the opposition under that much more pressure. And this is even more crucial in a high-voltage series like India vs Pakistan, where national passions are at stake, and not just a trophy.

Yesterday, our bowlers- especially the spinners- bowled very well, and virtually choked the Pakistani batsmen especially during the middle overs. But the team would do well to remember Pakistan’s generosity on the field in the form of dropped catches. Had Gambhir and Ganguly been caught earlier in the innings, the story may not have had as happy a ending for India.

I also think the media overdoes things. Last night’s news was full of phrases like “India smashes Pakistan”. Personally, I think the reporting could have been more sober. After all, there are 4 more games to go and while not for a moment am I writing off the Indians, I am definitely saying that there is no room for complacency. One bad day can ruin all the euphoria that has been built around yesterday’s victory.

Like all you cricket fans, I too look forward to a closely-contested series (and a series win for India, I might add!).

Just when the optimists among us started thinking that the worst of the sub-prime mess was over and that markets had started moving on, comes the back-to-back news of high profile CEO resignations in the US.

Last week, Stan O’Neal, CEO of Merrill Lynch, had to step down, when it was discovered that the firm’s write-down would be closer to $8B than the previously announced figure of $4.5B. And yesterday, Charles “Chuck” Prince, CEO of Citigroup, also chose to retire, in the wake of losses in the mortgage business, as well as fixed income business. In Citi’s case, the write-downs may well top $15B (indications are that the nearly $6B of bad debts announced some weeks ago may be followed by additional write-downs in the region of $8-11B).

In my view, the worst is not over yet. European and Japanese banks too have a fair amount of exposure to risky American mortgages and it won’t be long before the ripples cross the Atlantic and Pacific. The bottomline: the stock markets are in for a fairly choppy ride over the next 6 months as the story unravels further. And there is also the impact on borrowers- tighter credit, more due diligence, and possibly higher rates. In turn, this will affect not just the housing sector, but also automobile and consumer lending- and the impact will be felt by retailers, airlines, hotels and so on.

Add to the mix the crisis in Pakistan and the shenanigans in India over the Indo-US nuclear deal, and one can do little more than shudder at the spectre staring us in our face.

But hopefully, my gloom is misplaced and all will soon be hunky dory.

The imposition of emergency in Pakistan yesterday was perhaps not entirely a surprise, given the tight spot Gen Musharraf has found himself in over the past several months. Radicalism is on the rise in Pakistan, with the Red Mosque siege being the unhappy flashpoint. The growing “Talibanisation” along the country’s border with Afghanistan is another source of concern for Gen Musharraf. Add to this heady mix the ham-handed attempts to reduce the judiciary in the country and the recent bomb blasts. Stir in the actions and/or noises of former Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, and there you have it- a highly charged situation that is appearing flashpoint.

Clearly, Musharraf has been on the backfoot. The odds were high that the Supreme Court judgement might go against him and he would not be allowed to remain President. The US was cosying up to India and had offered it a nuclear deal that would have been widely seen by the Pakistani vote banks as inimical to their country (never mind the reality). Under the circumstances, Musharraf needed to buy time- and ergo, the Emergency.

What is important, however, is how soon he will choose to lift it. And what other actions he takes under the garb of protecting Pakistan’s interests, even as the media is gagged and the nascent pro-democracy opposition is emasculated. Just as important is what the radical elements in Pakistan choose to do in response. If the Al-Qaeda ups its ante and foments trouble more actively, the situation can worsen very soon. But any which way you look at the situation, it is a big worry for India. To detract attention from domestic affairs, military advisors may recommend actions that only serve to bring India and Pakistan closer to war- something either country can ill-afford.

I recently returned to India from a business trip overseas .  Soon after I got off the plane at Chennai and walked to the immigration control area, several things set me thinking:

1. There was a huge crowd of people waiting to get their passports checked. 3 747s had landed within a short time of each other (as is only to be expected at any international airport worth its reputation) and it was quite clear that the number of  officials on duty was woefully inadequate to handle the large volume of passengers. As a result, I spent more than an hour to clear immigration- something that should possibly have taken no more than half that time- at a maximum. Immigration control is probably the first “face” of India that people traveling to India see; it is important that we do everything possible to help them complete various formalities quickly and in comfort, to shape their perceptions about our country.
2. As we were waiting in line for our turn, the electrical power went off. Darkness prevailed for no more than maybe 45 seconds- but surely, the inverter/generator can be programmed to start off within milli-seconds. Sadly, such incidents reinforce the image of India still being a poor, third world country- when instead, we should be striving to chnage that perception in every possible way.
3. The immigration officer who processed my passport was quietly efficient- but surely, a welcoming smile and a greeting would not have hurt anyone! In fact, it would help reduce the tedium of a long flight.
4. There was a plasma screen (maybe it was an LCD TV) with some information on forex etc. that is obviously important for passengers. But guess what? The entire message was only in Tamil- a language that surely cannot be read even by all Indian passengers entering India via Chennai, let alone foreigners. Primacy of local language is understandable, but airports in a country that is the rising symbol of globalization should keep in mind the needs of “global” traffic as well. Or is that asking for too much? Repeat the message in multiple languages including English, Tamil (or whatever the local Indian language is), Hindi, Spanish, French, German, Chinese, Japanese so that all our visitors can understand- and comply.

This blog is not intended as a litany of complaints- it is meant to offer what I hope will be seen as productive suggestions aimed at improving our country’s infrasructure.