The situation in Pakistan

The imposition of emergency in Pakistan yesterday was perhaps not entirely a surprise, given the tight spot Gen Musharraf has found himself in over the past several months. Radicalism is on the rise in Pakistan, with the Red Mosque siege being the unhappy flashpoint. The growing “Talibanisation” along the country’s border with Afghanistan is another source of concern for Gen Musharraf. Add to this heady mix the ham-handed attempts to reduce the judiciary in the country and the recent bomb blasts. Stir in the actions and/or noises of former Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, and there you have it- a highly charged situation that is appearing flashpoint.

Clearly, Musharraf has been on the backfoot. The odds were high that the Supreme Court judgement might go against him and he would not be allowed to remain President. The US was cosying up to India and had offered it a nuclear deal that would have been widely seen by the Pakistani vote banks as inimical to their country (never mind the reality). Under the circumstances, Musharraf needed to buy time- and ergo, the Emergency.

What is important, however, is how soon he will choose to lift it. And what other actions he takes under the garb of protecting Pakistan’s interests, even as the media is gagged and the nascent pro-democracy opposition is emasculated. Just as important is what the radical elements in Pakistan choose to do in response. If the Al-Qaeda ups its ante and foments trouble more actively, the situation can worsen very soon. But any which way you look at the situation, it is a big worry for India. To detract attention from domestic affairs, military advisors may recommend actions that only serve to bring India and Pakistan closer to war- something either country can ill-afford.