Anand Krishna’s musings

After 3 weeks of high drama, Harbhajan has been let off the racism charge with a fine of 50% of his match fees. The official reason cited (at least for public consumption) is that conclusive evidence was not available to prove the charge.

Understandably, there is much jubilation in India, where the prevailing sentiment (also expressed in my own musings some weeks ago) has been that it was a trumped up charge because: 1. Australia does not enjoy being sledged at; and 2. Ponting came up with a diabolical ploy to neutralize Harbhajan, who had got his wicket some 8 times.

Just as naturally, the general mood in Australia is that Cricket Australia cut a deal with BCCI to protect its commercial interests, when the latter threatened to pull out of the ODI series. I am sure people will start saying that BCCI is able to throw its weight around at ICC and other member-countries because of its financial muscle. That is a fair assertion.

Even if it is true that the BCCI used its money power to bulldoze Cricket Australia into reducing charges, let us remember that when you pick up one end of a stick, the other end comes with it. I am sure cricket players from other countries benefit from the larger prize money from series against India. So also, it is cricket-crazy India that allows many cricketers- including from Australia- to make serious money through product endorsements. Brett Lee is even supposed to be acting in a Bollywood movie (he has already cut an album with Asha Bhosle).

I am not saying that the BCCI may not have tried to cut a deal- indeed, it may well have, by making so many not-so-veiled threats about calling off the ODI series! I am, however, saying that because Australian cricketers enjoy the benefits of an IPL or product endorsements in India, they should not grudge the BCCI’s financial power either. 

Now that the test series is behind us, the ICC can get on with Harbhajan Singh’s hearing on his alleged “racial abuse” of Andrew Symonds. I read today that they plan to use transcripts of the stump mic recording as evidence. If such recordings were available, how come Mr Procter did not see value in using them as evidence during the original hearing?

I also read a news report that Channel 9 abruptly stopped the stump microphone feed to ESPN/Star Sports from Sydney on Day 3. Now I wonder why that was…..?

Indeed, the case does grow murkier and murkier by the day. For the sake of cricket, I hope the case is closed soon.

The government decided not to confer the highest civilian award in India (the Bharat Ratna) to anyone this year. To me, it was pusillanimous choice, exercised solely to avoid the inevitable brouhaha about why X was given it but not Y.

I think all this lobbying for the Bharat Ratna on behalf of Mr. Vajpayee or Mr. Jyoti Basu is very unseemly. I am convinced that these two individuals are not happy at their zealous colleagues’ efforts to influence the government to award them the Bharat Ratna.

To me, the Bharat Ratna should be given only to someone who has clearly done something big enough (in terms of impact) to be called “the jewel of India”. Former President Kalam, with his contribution to Brahmos and other missile programs, and also his vision for India as a developed country by 2020, is probably one example. I am afraid I can’t think of any others at this time… but I suppose that only reinforces the point about these awards- they should go to those who have done something worthy of such recognition.

Australia added 260 runs today. Apart from Hayden’s 30th test hundred and that Ponting batted with grit to reach his highest score in the series yet, Australia almost has nothing to show for today. Of course, neither does India, in the sense that we managed to get only 3 wickets. India’s attack today was weakened significantly by the hamstring injury to R P Singh. But I must say that our bowlers toiled manfully and have almost got Australia to think about a draw, rather than go flat out for a win. A 3-1 margin of victory would give Australia a huge psychological boost ahead of the ODIs.

Over the last few years, Day 4 at Adelaide has provided a decisive turning point. Not long ago, England scored 500+ in its first innings- and lost the test. If I am not wrong, the average score for the third innings at this venue is around 165- although the average 4th innings score is almost 50% higher. Any cricket stat gurus who can confirm this pls?

All in all, I hope we have an action-packed Day 4 (and Day 5).

After a scratchy start yesterday, Ponting persevered and grafted his way to another century. He is probably Sachin’s closest rival, and the one most likely to eclipse Tendulkar’s record of the highest number of test centuries. Michael Clarke showed yet again why he is regarded as one of Australia’s most exciting talents, and between his and Ponting’s tons, they have made sure India has no chance of winning the Adelaide test.

Ishant Sharma continues to evolve as a bowler and has already won Wasim Akram’s heart. He also works up a fair pace (he bowls consistently at about 140Kmph) and is a very useful addition to our bowling arsenal. Pathan too has reached a personal milestone of a test double- 1000 runs and 100 wickets.

At this time (end of Day 4), it is fair to say that the match is unlikely to end in anything but a draw. Of course, strange things have been known to happen in cricket, and especially in India-Australia matches.

In the absence of a result, the most important news is Adam Gilchrist’s decision to retire from test cricket after this match. He had a rather poor game at Perth, having missed a few catches and stumping opportunities. And as is always the case when a high performer slips a little, numerous questions were immediately asked about his future in the team.

Gilly (or “Churchy”) is without question a terrific cricketer and has been the architect of many Aussie wins around the world, in partnership with McGrath and Warne. But he is also high on integrity and in modrn days, is one of the few batsmen that “walks”. I must confess that I was more than a little surprised at his relative silence after the Sydney test. I remember thinking to myself that some day, after he retires, he will probably say how troubled he was by the hapennings on and off the pitch. I did not expect he would retire so soon. But at 36, reflexes do perhaps start slowing down and he knows it is best for Australian cricket that he makes way for Brad Haddin. When Gilchrist took over from Ian Healy, everyone said it would be hard act to follow. And the same is perhaps true now- Gilchrist’s shoes are quite big and Haddin will have to grow in stature quickly to fill them. What will help Haddin, in my view, is that Mitchell Johnson and Brett Lee have a few more years left, and as they polish their skills and he his, “c Haddin b Johnson” may become the new Aussie mantra.

Thanks for all the entertainment, Adam. All the best! And Brad- all the best to you too!

After sustained falls in the first part of last week, the 30 stock BSE Stock Index (the Sensex) gained well over 1000 points on Friday- the highest ever gain in one single day. Essentially, the “India Story” is too good to ignore. FIIs have started coming back to India, after a spate of selling (to book profits). The P-Note saga too has perhaps played out completely. Admittedly, global cues from western markets are worrying, but India has a vibrant domestic savings rate and pretty decent domestic demand.

A rapid rise back by the Sensex to 21,000 is not a planned-or controllable- activity. But as I said in a previous post, sectors like infrastructure, retail and financial services are the engines of our economic growth. The RBI has made some conciliatory noises about reining in the Rupee. Although Finance Minister Chidambaram has suggested (on the sidelines at Davos) that there will be no tax reductions in next month’s budget, we must remember that general elections are around the corner. The markets will expect a populist budget and hence start rising in the coming 4 weeks. In fact, after Congress’ rout in Gujarat and HP, a populist budget cannot be completely ruled out- although I hope fiscal prudence will not be sacrificed at the altar of electoral populism.

To me, the bottom line is this: keep the faith, and in 12 months, an average equity portfolio return of 25% is very much possible. I agree though that this is nowhere close to the 50+% annual returns many investors have enjoyed over the past 2-3 years. But hey, past peformance is no indication of future performance!

On Day One of the Adelaide cricket test between India and Australia, the two teams shared the honours equally. Sachin’s ton, Laxman’s classy knock and Sehwag’s return to some sort of form (at least the agression was there) were India’s highlights, while the bowling of Brett Lee and Mitchell Johnson must have raised Aussie hopes.
Day Two was dominated by Kumble and Harbhajan Singh- not, as one might expect, in their capacity as bowlers, but as batsmen. Both scored half-centuries. Kumble was unfortunate to miss a historic second test century by only 13 runs, while Harbhajan played an atrocious stroke while on 63 to gift his wicket away. Sadly, Tendulkar frittered away an opportunity to go on to get an ever bigger score than 150, while Dhoni continued his woeful form with the willow. The Australians must have been hoping to finish India off well within 400, given that both Sachin and Dhoni were out with the score less than 360. But India’s once-famous tail started wagging again, and how! Kumble, Harbhajan and Ishant frustrated the Australians for the better part of the day, enabling India to end their first innings at 526. In most tests, this would surely count as a “commanding total”.

Hayden and Jaques have got off to a good, if sedate start, and Australia are 62 for no loss at the end of Day Two. I think we have a very entertaining 3 days left in the match. The only cloud on the horizon (for India) is R P Singh’s injury, which may be serious enough for him to not play again in this match. Which would be a pity, considering how well he bowled at Perth.

At this point in time, I’d have to say it’s Advantage India. But as always, may the team that plays better cricket over the 5 days, win!

The Sensex has lost over 2200 points in the last two days. Stock markets across Asia, Europe and the US too have fallen. This global collapse was inevitable, given that the credit crisis in the western world was not limited in impact to the western economies.

Highlighting the key underlying forces is instructive. In India, a major reason was the high valuations implied by a Sensex that stood at 21000+ . The specific trigger, perhaps was investors’ mad rush to cash in on the listing gains for IPOs. The mother of all IPOs- Reliance Power- has just sucked up huge amounts of capital from the market. Several investors sold their shares just to raise money to invest in the Reliance Power IPO. Also, several investors were highly leveraged, and lacked the liquidity to take delivery of shares. Add to this the  sustained selling by FIIs, many to offset their sub-prime losses. Voila- a recipe for an implosion. Which is exactly what happened. Those most directly impacted (apart from investors) will be companies that had IPOs scheduled in the next few months, as they see poor subscriptions to their issues, prices at the lower end of the band and so on.

But there is hope for the strong of heart. Those willing to ride out the volatility for another 6-9 months should see the Sensex recoup its losses. Expectations around a friendly budget (likely, since elections are round the corner) could accelerate the rebound process.  However, another imponderable is corporate performance in Q4. If the US economy does enter a recession, it could slow down Indian exports. The IT sector might gain because more companies in the US will seek to outsource- but lower price points could neutralize some of these gains. If you have surplus funds, invest in select stocks and mutual funds that have the right stocks in their portfolio. Time, it is said, is the best healer. The statement is true for stock markets as well.
Happy investing and good luck!

The selectors have announced the Indian 16 for the ODI series in Australia and there are a few things in there that make me nervous. Don’t get me wrong- I am all for youthful legs and young blood in the team. But I am not sure it’s the smartest thing to do to jettison so much by way of experience of Australian conditions in one shot- especially when Yuvraj and Dhoni have not exactly set the grounds on fire with their scintillating (or even solidly consistent) batting displays. Granted that a Suresh Raina or a Rohit Sharma is a better fielder than a VVS Laxman or Saurav Ganguly. But to win ODIs, you also need players who can bat and score runs briskly. Both Laxman and Ganguly have done just that in the ongoing test series (OK- so Dada failed at Perth- but remember he was battling viral fever). These two have a measure of the Australian bowlers. I do not know how many warm-up ODIs the Indians have, but getting used to Australian conditions is not easy for the most seasoned players- and here we have several rookies. And remember that it is a tripartite series- so India not only have to play well against Australia, but also against the Sri Lankans, so that we make it to the finals.

And the less said about the timing of the announcement, the better. There is a school of thought that as professionals, the cricketers need to adjust quickly and get on with life. Either the axing will spur Dravid and Dada to score heavily at Adelaide or they will withdraw into a shell and that does not bode well for the team. For the sake of keeping up the momentum, I hope it is the former.

But to be fair, it was the youngsters who won us the T20 World Cup a few months ago. And it is the youth of Ishant, RP Singh and Pathan that won us the match at Perth yesterday! So maybe this youthful ODI team will deliver…. I shall reserve more comments till I see them in action Down Under.

I may sound like a party-pooper, wet blanket or whatever else for saying this- the Indian cricket team’s terrific achievement at Perth is already history. And while it would be churlish to grudge the team (and its fans) their celebrations, let us not forget that we have another test starting at Adelaide in a few days. Unlike Perth, which, until yesterday, had a reputation for being every sub-continental team’s Waterloo, India actually beat Australia in 2003 at Adelaide. And the Aussies must be smarting under the loss at Perth. These two reasons must alone be enough to raise a red flag. The Aussies will be eager to prove a point at the Adelaide Oval and Team India must not let its guard down. The psychological advantage lies with India after yesterday’s win. But do not forget that Johnson and Clark almost took the game away from India.

I think we do have a good chance of leveling the series- but that requires the team to again play as a team, with each player playing his part. Which is pretty much what happened at the WACA. Sehwag has proved himself to be a handy spinner, while Pathan is a new, improved player. Jaffer has had a few chances to get a feel for the Aussie bowlers and although it may be tempting to bring back Harbhajan or sit Jaffer out (given that he has not really pulled his weight so far in the series), there is much to be said in favour of retaining a winning combination. But that is anyway, a Kumble decision!

What would be interesting is to see what changes Australia makes. If Hayden is fit, he will surely come in for Rogers. And Brad Hogg will replace Tait, who, though fast, has not bowled with any great control in terms of line/length.

Both sides have a lot at stake at Adelaide, and that should make it an absorbing contest, like the one we just saw at Perth. I hope the result is similar too!

PS: I wonder how much of a role Gary Kirsten had to play in our team’s showing at Perth- wasn’t he supposed to take over as a “Consultant” at Perth? Or is he supposed to take over after the Perth test?

India has become the first team from the sub-continent to have beaten Australia at Perth. This long- impregnable Aussie bastion has been breached by a bunch of young Indian bowlers. The Indian team and the Indian fan is understandably cock-a-hoop with joy. And with good reason. Fan after fan has said that after what happened at Sydney, the victory at Perth is even sweeter. Some have even spoken of karma. But wait just one moment….

At Sydney, we lost because of a combination of shoddy umpiring AND our inability to play out the last session (remember we lost 3 wickets in one over by a part-time bowler). At Perth, a large part of credit must undoubtedly go to our consistently better bowling, gritty batting and better-than-usual fielding over the 4 days. However, should it choose to, does Australia not have reason to complain about the quality of umpiring yesterday? Symonds got a touch of bat before the ball hit his pad, but was declared lbw at a crucial stage of the match. How diferent is this from the second innings at Sydney, where Dravid was adjudged caught behind off Symonds (oh the irony!), when replays showed that his bat was behind the pad and did not make contact with the ball. The outcomes of both games may well have been different, had the right umpiring decisions been made on these two and all the other occasions where the umpires have erred in the last two games.

Two wrongs do not ever make a right. But like in every other aspect of life, the law of averages does inevitably catch up. Poor umpiring decisions have been around for as long as the game itself. But now, with supposedly “technology{ being used to improve the quality of decision-making, people’s expectations of umpiring standards have (naturally) risen higher. Let us not forget that umpires need to make split-second decisions based on what they see/hear (or not!). As armchair critics, we have access to the full power of “technology” (the hawk-eye, snick-o-meter etc.), backed by the opinions/comments of various commentatorswho are watching the action live. At Perth alone, there would have been a few 5-ball overs, had not the 3rd umpire stepped in. Maybe it is time to redefine the role of umpires to just making sure that the spirit of the game is not breached on the field (and maybe adjudging no-balls, wides and byes). Leave everything else to a group of two off-field umpires who have even greater access to “technology”.

If Australia asks for Asad Rauf and Billy Bowden to be replaced, only Taufel, Coertzen and a couple of other umpires will be left in the “ICC Elite” panel. And after Adelaide there may be none!

PS: The best technology can also only be perhaps 80% accurate in terms of its ability to “predict”. For instance, where a ball will go after it hits a crack on the pitch is hard to model.  And often, that may be the difference between an lbw decision and a not-out.

The majority of the first day at Perth, I dare say, was India’s. But sadly, a flurry of wickets after tea has eroded what could have been a solid advantage. Kudos to Sachin and Dravid for sticking it out against some hostile bowling- at least in phases. Unfortunate that neither lasted long enough to score a century.

While Sachin may have (again!) been done in by an unfortunate umpiring decision, in Dravid’s case, it was more poor execution of the shot. As he himself has admitted, he has played similar shots successfully in the past….. but today he spooned a simple catch.

Mitchell Johnson bowled well (as, of course, did Brett Lee). I am hoping that Pathan and RP Singh can use the angle that left-handers can create to advantage. And on a track with bounce, do not under-estimate what Kumble can do or for that matter, Sharma with his height.

Looking forward to an absorbing match and may the better team win.

Reports in some Indian nespapers state that Harbhajan may have said “Teri maa ki…” to Symonds, who heard it as “monkey” and got all hot and bothered. If this is indeed true (i.e. Bhajji did say “teri maa ki…”), it explains why Bhajji and Tendulkar have been so confident that what Harbhajan said was not a racial slur. I suppose “teri maa ki…” is as widely used in India as “bastards” is used in Australia (this word, by the way, is supposed to have been used by Brad Hogg in his “banter” with Kumble and Dhoni at Sydney). And I was told by a friend (who claims to have read it somewhere) that Symonds apparently called Bhajji a “f#$%^g homo”. If this is indeed true, I wonder who leaked this to the media….

Arguably, questioning someone’s parentage, making a statement about someone’s sexual proclivities, referring to someone’s parent’s anatomy or attributing incestuous tendencies to someone are in the same league. Ergo because Hogg or Symonds did not transgress the line of decency, neither did Harbhajan! Unless one accepts that different standards of acceptable behaviour are being used.

Did someone just say cricket is a gentleman’s game? Oh my! Such ignorance- either about the game’s modern version or the meaning of the word “gentleman”.

PPS: After all this row about bad umpiring, not playing in the spirit of the game, cheating, and the Aussies wanting to win at any cost, please let us not forget that we lost 3 wickets in one over. Or that if Jaffer or Yuvraj (both of whom have had a forgettable tour so far) had each played 3 more deliveries each, we may still have saved the match.

It’s finally here. The much awaited “people’s car” from the house of Tatas was unveiled at the New Delhi auto expo a couple of days ago. Initial reactions seem to be quite favourable. The design, the promised mileage/fuel-efficiency, the compliance with safey and environmental norms and of course, the price tag of Rs 1 lakh (INR 100,000 if you are not familar with the word “lakh”) are all incredible. Ratan Tata (and of course, Girish Wagh’s team) has delivered- possibly to the chagrin of several people who expected the Rs 1 lakh car to be no more than an auto-rickshaw.

In a separate piece, I have written about the contribution to traffic jams across the country the “Rs 1 lakh car” will make, and the impact it will have on our fuel import bill, emissions/carbon footprint etc. I do not feel any more reassured on these counts having seen the picture of the Nano or having read various reports. If anything, the prospect of having a 100,000 Nanos on our roads in the next 18-24 months is terrifying. But even so, kudos to Mr Ratan Tata’s vision and perseverence.

Given its fuel efficiency and supposed compliance with Euro IV emission norms etc, I wonder how the Nano would do if it is exported (assuming of course that a dealer and service network are in place and it meets the toughest safety and emission norms). Think of the large number of Indian students or IT professionals who live in the US and Europe. Especially in the US, an automobile is an absolute necessity. Rather than spend $3000-$5000 for a used car that has clocked 100,000 or more miles, would it not make sense to buy a new Nano for close to the same price? Perhaps the Nano, with its 600+cc engine can’t negotiate US expressways as well as that second hand Toyota or Honda can. But for city driving, it may just be what people are looking for. And if I am not wrong, the first Honda cars launched in the US all those years ago were also around 650 cc. Strange coincidence, eh?

For the reasons above (and the fact that India does not have a very well-developed used car market), the Nano might also make a huge dent in the prices of second-hand small cars. A second-hand car has an awful lot of information asymmetry stacked against the buyer in India (or anywhere, I guess). Therefore, why risk a lemon? Be safe with a new Nano.

Think about it…..