The trillion dollar questions

In the last couple of weeks (and especially the past 10 days), the financial world as we have known it for some years now, has changed dramatically. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had to be bailed out by the US government. Lehman Brothers has filed for bankruptcy. AIG is in big trouble. Merrill Lynch was acquired by Bank of America. 20% of Morgan Stanley might be acquired by Mitsubishi UBJ. Stock markets around the world have lost tens of billions of dollars in market cap. And finally, the biggest news of them all- Uncle Sam is planning to pump in close to a trillion dollars in the US financial system to make sure it does not collapse any further.

The US government’s speed of response has been admirable. It has done what needs to be done in the short term. But the entire situation raises several uncomfortable questions, the answers to which could well decide how many years more the pain will linger. Not just for the US, but indeed, for the entire world.

1. How is the US government going to finance this clean-up? Raise taxes? Borrow more? Creditors turn wary when individuals or companies become highly leveraged. Is a government any different?
2. If printing additional currency notes seems like an easy answer, think of what it will do to inflation? And if inflaton climbs, interest rates must follow. That in turn will make borrowing more costly and may well dry up the funds required to rebuild the beleaguered financial system.
3. Which foreign country (or countries) can afford to lend the US the huge amounts of money it needs? Will more of America be owned by the Japanese, Chinese or Indians?
4. By helping Bear Stearns and then Freddie and Fannie, the government showed weakening trust in “the market”. Then, by letting Lehman file for bankruptcy, the government signalled an apparent change of heart. Is all this an admission that unbridled, unregulated capitalism is not the wonderful system many thought it to be?

And just as people started to debate the merits of unregulated capitalism versus partially regulated capitalism, comes the news that the US government has just decided to turn the clock back on a regulation that was enacted nearly 70 years ago- the Glass-Steagall Act, which precluded commercial, deposit-raising banks from carrying out investment banking business. Ironically, the Act came into force in the 1930s, during the Great Depression. With the most recent change, the so-called Wall Street investment banks (the ones that remain, that is!) become bank holding companies. They thus become more regulated- with the Fed and other government agencies now having more regulatory supervision- instead of just the SEC. There will be greater disclosures- which is only good for shareholders. Also, these banks will have access to a steady flow of deposits- which is what the standalone I-banks lacked and were therefore forced to leverage their funds to make the kinds of esoteric investments that have made them fortunes over the past decade.  But with this change, the superstar I-bankers with their million dollar bonuses might become a thing of the past- but hopefully, investors will make some money- after the clean up.

Wonder when Bank of Goldman Sachs will open for business? I also wonder if the US government would have made the same decisions if Mr Henry (Hank) Paulson, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs had not been US Treasury Secretary.

The O”LIMP”ICS

I never cease to be amazed at how, for several years now, China, almost as a matter of right, has bagged the highest number of gold medals at the Olympics. Just as how in the 70s and 80s, the erstwhile Soviet Union (which drew its athletes from nearly a dozen countries of today) was a dominant force in world sports.

In the past, India’s poor medals tally could perhaps be explained by the fact that we did not have good quality coaching, or that our athletes did not have access to world-classs nutritionists and diets. But now, many sporting bodies have been able to hire foreign coaches (how good they are is of course another matter entirely). Training facilities have improved; physical fitness regimes are now customized to individual athletes, and they are provided better food. And yet, our performance hasn’t changed all that much. Compare the number of medals the Chinese have won relative to the number of people they sent to the olympics and indeed, their country’s population and you will see my point. Of course, we recorded our best ever showing at the olympics in 2008. We won a gold medal and two bronze medals in individual events. Abhinav BIndra in fact won India’s first ever gold medal at an olympics. And that augurs well for the future. Maybe our recent wins will spur the government to do more for sports and encourage our talented youngsters to go all out. Maybe we will do better in 2012.

… And then there were two!

A decade ago, a list of the top Investment Banks on Wall Street would have looked very different from what it does today. In the last 6 months alone, Bear Stearns has become history. With Bank of America announcing its intent to acquire Merril Lynch, another venerable I-Bank might soon become a memory. And of course, Lehman Brothers is close to bankruptcy unless a miracle rescue deal is cobbled together- and even then, Lehman may not remain Lehman, with dismembered parts of its business going to various buyers. And after all this happens, only Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will remain. And how long that wil continue? Your guess is as good as mine!

Beware of cross-currency movements

Over the last 3-4 years, the Indian IT services companies have reduced the share of their revenue coming from the US from 95%+ to around 65%. A big portion of this revenue now comes from European clients. That was lauded as a great risk management step, and the harbinger of further growth. But what seems to have been missed is the fact that in a gobally inter-connected economy, exchange rates move in ways that are hard to model or predict. Most companies focused on the US$-INR exchange rate or the GBP/Euro-INR rate. Not surprisingly, many of these companies now face the threat of seeing revenues erode because the US$ has gained hugely vis-a-vis the Euro and GBP over the past few weeks. The next month will tell us how badly revenues and margins of these individual companies have been hit. Another painful lesson in globalization.

The Indo-US nuclear deal- economics will trump politics

After almost 3 years of wrangling, arguing, debating, cajoling and threatening, the deal is now in its final stage- waiting for approval from the US Congress/Senate. It appears that there are now new interpretations of the text being made by President Bush. Understandably, this is causing much consternation in the Congress. Already, there is talk of India rejecting any “unilateral” dilution of clauses related to guaranteed nuclear fuel supplies.

There is, clealrly, a last-mile problem here. However, now that the NSG waiver has been obtained, I’d say that the US has far more to lose than India does, if it makes changes to various clauses. With the NSG waiver, India can well sign agreements with Russia and France for Uranium supply even before it does so with the US. Also, if these countries are seen as being more supportive and flexible, it is perhaps only natual that a large chunk of India’s civilian nuclear business will go their way. That is something the US can ill afford. Ergo, my naive opinion is that the US Congress will rattle a few sabers but eventually agree to supply us with the Uranium.

Inviting views from you all…