Big IT in flux

It will be interesting to see how the impending changes in leadership at Infosys pans out. Arguably, the company has outgrown any one individual. But it is by no means assured that Mr Narayana Murthy’s retirement will be a non sequitur, coming as it will soon after Mr Shibulal takes over from Mr Gopalakrishnan as CEO (as is widely expected). And although Mr Premji has not given any indications of stepping down, recent changes in leadership at Wipro have stirred the pot. If media reports are to be believed, many of Wipro’s top executives are looking for jobs outside the company. Cognizant has been growing rapidly and before the end of the fiscal, there is a chance that it may replace Wipro as India’s 3rd largest software company. TCS continues to beat market expectations, but is probably not insulated from some of the more fundamental forces that are shaping “Big IT” in India.

Never mind the pace of US recovery or Europe’s troubles. One inescapable fact is that the current dominant model of revenues growing linearly with headcount cannot continue for much more. The cloud will force fundamental changes to how software is built and consumed. It will impact the global delivery model of Indian IT companies (and indeed, the IBMs, Accentures and HPs of the world as well). The question is whether these companies are prepared to embrace the change. Such change will impact how these companies position themselves, how they go to market, how they pitch their solutions to prospects and existing clients. Even the types of solutions they build and the investment patterns for developing and deploying these solutions will need to change. Of course, the cloud may not become all-pervasive as soon as some expect. Perhaps these companies still have another 3 years in which to transform themselves yet again.
It will be instructive to see how the different players evolve and assess their relative successes over the next few years.

Can RCB turn things around from here?

On paper, RCB has a pretty solid team. Dilshan, AB de Villiers, Virat Kohli, Zaheer Khan and Vettori are among the best in the business. And yet, in the first half of IPL 4, the Royal Challengers have disappointed. With only 2 wins from 6 games (admittedly, one match was rained out), fans are understandably morose.

Gayle won the match against KKR almost single-handedly. And if he continues with his form for the next 3 weeks, RCB is sure to make the semis. But Dilshan is leaving soon (although to be honest, he has not exactly set the stands on fire so far). And therein lies the problem. Kohli apart, RCB’s stars have not delivered so far. Zak has been leaking runs aplenty. And after the first match against the Tuskers, AB has not been among the runs. Also, with the majority of players being new to the franchise, they haven’t yet gelled as a team. While a similar situation exists with other teams, it is the inability of players like Saurabh Tiwary who played a key role last season that is hurting RCB.

It would be unwise to rely only on reputations. Unless everyone raises their fielding standards and RCB play as a team, we can kiss our chances of even making it to the top 4 in IPL 4 goodbye.

Will the Lokpal Bill deliver us from corrruption?

I have been watching Annasaheb Hazare’s Gandhian fast with mixed emotions. I am delighted that his obstinacy snowballed into a national “movement” (perhaps even a “revolution”, if some of our friends in the media are to be believed) and forced the government to accede to the demand to pass the Lokpal Bill. But what has been agreed to? As of now, a committee is being set up to examine the draft bill proposed and come up with a version that Parliament will pass.

Several previous governments (of different hues) have tried to establish a national ombudsman type of mechanism for at least the last 3 decades. But there has been zero progress. Corruption has continued, unabated. In fact, it has become far more insidious. CWG, 2G, CVC, Adarsh Housing, Sukhna land, Karnataka CM….. and these are only what I recall off the top of my head as I write this piece. Even India’s defence forces have not been exempt from the cancer of corruption.

But isn’t corruption really more about a mind-set? About accountability? Are not givers of bribes as guilty of perpetrating corruption as the takers of bribes are? After all, if there were no givers, there would be no takers, right? If we apply Marshallian economic principles to corruption (and I must admit that I am only recalling some basics I studied 20 years ago), then the “bribe” is really the supply-demand equilibrium point. The bribe could be to evade a speeding or parking ticket; it could be to obtain a sleeper berth on an overnight train; it could be for admission to schools and colleges. Why do we not need to “bribe” anyone at a popular restaurant to get a table ahead of others? Maybe we do- we just call it “tips”. But the point is about choice- or the lack thereof. Eating at a particular restaurant may be desirable, even a status symbol. But little more. On the other hand, ensuring that our kids get admission to decent schools is not as trivial. And when there remain huge gaps between the quality of education delivered by certain schools vis-a-vis others, we can’t, as rational human beings, remain indifferent. Till the underlying gaps are fixed and we as a nation offer consistent service quality across states/cities/districts/villages, expecting that bribes will go away is wishful thinking. Remember that a junior clerk in a government office who makes Rs10000 per month also has kids with the same aspirations as someone in the private sector who makes ten times that salary. Till there is greater equity (or should I say lesser inequity), the desire to make extra income (to fulfill his family’s aspirations) will not go away.

Let us also assume that the Jan Lokpal bill is passed by Parliament (even though the passing of such a bill poses the greatest of threats to corrupt politicians and officials). By making the PM, CM and other public servants (including government officers) accountable and culpable, will payment of Rs100 to escape a traffic ticket (when you are guilty) or Rs1000 to get property registered (even when you have all the necessary documentation) stop? Will we have the courage (not to speak of the time and willingness) to avoid the short-cut afforded by the miraculous lubricating power of money and follow due process? Those who have the money (and are short of time) will not. Those who do not have the money will try- even if they don’t have the time- but few will succeed. After all, that is the power of the system. Today’s newspaper quotes Mr T V Mohandas Pai of Infosys as saying how even Infosys had to escalate matters to the Chief Secretary to get necessary approvals etc. The Infosys name can open doors in the government. Do common citizens enjoy that same right? Justice Santosh Hegde, the Lok Ayukta of Karnataka is close to completing his term. His outbursts against the system are too well-documented to need repeating here. When a constitutionally-appointed Lok Ayukta is severely handicapped in weeding out corruption, what hope do others have?

Call me a cynic. And I hope I am proved wrong. But I fear that we will not see any huge change even if the Lokpal Bill becomes law.

Cricket trumps politics

I wanted to write this right after the India-Pakistan semi-final match at Mohali. But better late than ever, I suppose. Personally, I don’t expect much to come out of Dr Manmohan Singh’s attempts to reopen dialogue with Pakistan by inviting PM Gilani to see the match. At best, it is a symbolic gesture. At worst, a waste of time.

However, I was very happy to listen to Afridi’s comments after the match, as also his reported exhortations before the game to fans in both countries to treat the match as a game and not a war. I draw hope from this change in behavior in the “aam janta”. Even a decade ago, a Pakistani cricket captain would not have dared to make such a statement even for public consumption. Neither would anyone have openly acknowledged that they lost to a better team. In the Times Now-Geo TV simulcast of the day before the match, Javed Miandad was making the odd provocative statement. However, he also took great pains to point out that the Indian team was strong and that it would be a good game of cricket no matter who won etc.

I think people on both sides of the border have begun to realize that not being peaceful neighbors is patently “lose-lose”. And that, I believe, will accelerate the process of rapprochement, by strengthening people-to-people contact through trade, the arts and of course, cricket and hockey. It won’t happen in a matter of months or even a couple of years. But I believe the next decade will see the two sub-continental neighbors closer than ever before.

Soaking in the victory and thinking ahead

Congratulations to Team India for winning the 2011 ICC ODI World Cup. The culmination of a 6 week campaign characterized by some not-so-convincing successes (and a few slip-ups as well in the first round) was sweet. Bringing the Cup home after 28 years (an entire generation has gone by, hoping we will win it) has cheered the whole nation and millions of its cricket-loving diaspora spread around the planet. And why not? In a year that has already seen more than its share of ruinous scams and scandals, we as a nation are starved for good news. So this win comes as a restorative for all Indians.

Sachin is understandably delighted at adding the one medal that was conspicuously missing from his trophy shelf. For others too, this represents a great achievement (for example, Gary Kirsten has had an absolutely amazing run as India’s coach). But what should not be forgotten is that the triumphs in the quarter-finals, semis and finals in particular also represent the coming of age of India’s next gen cricketers. Indeed, this result is also a fine testament to India playing well as a team, rather than as a non-cohesive assortment of individuals. Dhoni has proved that leadership needs the courage of conviction to do what the leader thinks is right- but also the humility and honesty to acknowledge mistakes, learn from them- and move on. I just wish our more of our political and corporate leaders would demonstrate the same openness.

For team India, the hard part now lies in living up to the reputation of being ODI world champs as also the top test team. Rather like sustaining a brand once it has achieved some degree of success. Every selection, every result, every post-toss decision will be under the microscope of fans around the world. But with the right attitude (and of course the right “processes”), it can be done. All the best, team India!