Will we change? Can we?

I recently attended a conclave organized by the CII. Ministers from several Asian/African countries were part of the various panels that discussed various topics. Captains of Indian industry chaired the panels. The themes included the emergence of mega trading blocs, cooperation amongst “south-south” countries and how building global supply chains sustainably was crucial for development.

Overall, the event was well organized. It provided delegates the opportunity to network (or at least, exchange business cards).

Three things struck me in particular:

1. How well-informed some of the ministers (from other countries) are about various topics. To be sure, some of India’s ministers too are well-read and can hold their own in debates and discussions. But I wonder if more than 15-20% of our ministers can do a good job of exhibiting erudition and knowledge even in their areas. Maybe the foreign ministerial delegates used prepared speeches- but the way they quoted figures and data was pretty awesome. Of course, I had no way of verifying the authenticity of the information being thrown at the audience!

2. How unprepared some of the chairpersons appeared to be. Judging by the fact that they mispronounced the names of some of their fellow panelists, I would even go so far as to say that they not even bothered to read their panelists’ names earlier (nor had they bothered to quietly ask them how to pronounce their names correctly). Forget some of the harder-to-pronounce names of foreigners- even the names of desi IAS officers were mispronounced. Not once but on several occasions. Oh well….. our famous “chalta hai” attitude is too deep-rooted for it to change easily, I suppose.

3. Competition among states to attract and garner investment has moved beyond offering tax sops. The bar has been raised, with states now speaking of offering clean and green environments that while being conducive to business, also seek to balance the needs of farmers and other stakeholders. Even the bureaucracy is “fully seized of the need” to do so. Surely a good sign. Ministers may come and go, but the “steel frame” stays on forever.

On analytics and stuff… or maybe just fluff!

I am often invited as a guest faculty to various B-Schools in Bangalore to deliver workshops/lectures to MBA and Executive MBA students on topics such as Leadership, High-Impact Communication, Building and Sustaining High-Performance teams etc. Often, individuals from these classes get in touch with me via email or phone and share news of their placements or ask for my opinion on various matters.

I enjoy interacting with college students simply because it gives me the opportunity to stay in touch with those who will likely enable India to move in the next 20 years or so to becoming one of the world’s top economies (and not just as measured by PPP). It is also refreshing to experience their “way of life”. Secretly, I even envy those of them who have become fine practitioners of the art of looking at/for possibilities- something that my cynicism has often worked overtime to preclude.

A couple of months ago, I was asked to conduct some sessions on topics that would help MBA students “build their perspective”. I decided to cover in it “Followership” and explain its linkages with “Leadership”. I was rather surprised when one of the students from this batch called me recently. He told me how much he enjoyed my sessions and wished I had conducted a few more. To be perfectly frank, while I did not remember him specifically, I was a little confused at his avowed liking for my lectures, for I had often seen students in that specific institute playing with their phones even during the session. I assumed that the e-mails or SMS messages were more interesting than my ramblings, and let it go.

This young man said he has been placed at a leading IT consulting company during campus placements and expects to formally join in a couple of months. He also told me that in his view, the topics I had chosen “were not relevant” to him and his batch-mates. Ever the game trier, I valiantly pointed out that my objective was simply to equip them with perspectives that executives typically acquire after several years in a corporate environment. And even then, there are many who miss the point! He acquiesced guardedly, leaving me unsure if he did see my point of view or not.

During the conversation, he digressed suddenly and asked me for my views on “analytics”. Now, that was a curve-ball, for I don’t really know that much about the subject. But I have never let ignorance come in the way- so I went for it. I told him that analytics is all about detecting patterns by analyzing vast amounts of data using statistical techniques and the power of computers and then using those patterns (however implausible they might seem) to drive business strategy and operational excellence.

I gave him the example of a mobile telephone services company that might be losing a hundred thousand customers each month thanks to number portability (or sheer dissatisfaction with service levels). While that may prima facie seem catastrophic, what if in fact, 61% of those who “churned” hardly made any calls or sent any text messages or used any value added services? The telco would not really have been making much money from these customers, right? And yet they would need to spend resources on servicing them- bills sent on time, alerts sent, queries answered etc. I told him (half in jest) that analytics might help establish that “churn” was not all bad. Similarly, analytics might help a telco determine that customers between the ages of 65 and 75 might benefit from a special package that allows them to access Skype or FB chat via their smartphones for a fixed amount each month (so their kids and grandkids can video chat with them and they do not have to worry about data usage limits and such), but that their package does not include as many free texts or whatever other services they don’t use much.

The idea is of course to figure out what makes most sense to your customers and provide such services. “Value” must be looked at from the customer’s point first- and only then from the service provider’s perspective. After all, if your prospects do not see “value”, they will not buy. So no matter how much “value” you think a certain service can add to your business, in reality, it will add zero value.

I also gave him an example of how banks use analytics to design credit cards and how retailers can use analysis of data to figure out when to send out discount coupons for certain products by analyzing POS (Point of Sale) data and using loyalty data to target customers in certain areas. That way, rather than send 10,000 mailers blind, retailers can send only 1000- and expect a higher conversion rate. That’s not just higher top-line, but also lower costs- so higher bottom-line as well.

At that point, this student said something to the effect “This makes it so much easier to understand. Why don’t you write this in your blog, so that many more people will benefit too?” That’s the reason for this blog. My friend- you know who you are. Thanks for your feedback. I hope this helps you, your batch-mates/friends and others in some small way. Good luck- and God bless!

The number of subsidized LPG cylinders per year goes back to 12

There was much speculation in Indian media that the PM acceded to Rahul Gandhi’s “request” made during the latter’s speech today at the AICC session in New Delhi. How naive can our journalists and analysts get!? The decision to reduce it from 12 to 9 was made one year ago- the thinking within the UPA/Congress must have been on the lines of “Let us see how we fare in the next one year. If we feel that we are losing ground, we can use this as a lever and hopefully, gain some votes by raising the number back to 12 closer to the elections”. At a time when the Finance Minister and PM have so often expressed their concern about the ballooning fiscal deficit and the need to cut it down, a decision like this, which would add at least around Rs3000 crores to the country’s subsidy bill, is clearly not good economics. But then in politics- and during desperate times, politics is known to trump economics. [Of course, the government can always increase the prices of petrol and diesel and reduce some of the burden of the enhanced LPG subsidy. But that would be an unpopular decision to take 3 months before national elections. What’s that about robbing Peter to pay Paul?].

If the Congress forms the next government- though at this time, the possibility seems unlikely- this subsidy may be revisited in the name of fiscal discipline and we may go back to 9 subsidized LPG cylinders per year. But if they don’t- then this is like a “scorched earth policy”, for it leaves the next government with very little wiggle room. If the new government does take steps to cut down the number of subsidized LPG cylinders to 9, the Congress (in the Opposition) will cry hoarse about how it stood for the aam aadmi, while the BJP (or maybe the AAP) that has formed the government, is not.

Forgive me, dear reader, for I must admit that I have not a shred of evidence to back my hypothesis (or should I again say “speculation”?).

Mr. Mani Shankar Aiyar’s needless comment- both irksome and self-destructing

I was aghast when earlier today, I watched Indian TV channels repeatedly show Mr. Mani Shankar Aiyar’s downright nasty comment about Mr. Narendra Modi. As part of political banter prior to elections, it is one thing to say that a political rival will not ever become PM or even comment about faux pas that rivals make; however, it is quite another to bring up the rival’s past in a derogatory tone/manner- and that too, apparently deliberately, for Mr. Aiyar is otherwise a very articulate person and I find it hard to believe that his choice of words was anything but premeditated.

It is a credit to the BJP that it has projected someone with humble origins as the party’s Prime Ministerial candidate. After all, that is meritocracy in action. Perhaps it is an electoral gamble, and only time will tell if making this choice was sheer genius or a huge mistake, as some in the BJP, including the party’s patriarch, Mr. Advani, believe(s/d). But I digress.

In elections, a candidate’s “winnability” is undoubtedly important. But the Congress leadership must realize that in the current political context of our country, personal honesty and the commitment to be a crusader against corruption are emerging as very important attributes. Everything else- even political experience or family connections- are not as critical.

If Rahul Gandhi is serious about cleansing the party of deadwood and infusing it with the creative energies and diehard optimism of youth, he should start by weeding out those who embarrass the party by mindlessly shooting off their mouths or because of their association with corruption, nepotism and so on. India has a culture of seeking the counsel of those much older- and that is a fine practice to continue because the exuberance of youth does need to be tempered by the pragmatic sobriety of experienced politicians- but just do so behind closed doors.

Not AAP-bashing, just an “aap-osite” view perhaps…..

The Aam Aadmi Party’s motives are unquestionably noble. But given that very few members of AAP have the administrative experience relevant to run a government ably, there is a danger that the ministers may rely excessively on the bureaucracy or become so suspicious of babudom’s motives that they look at every suggestion with skepticism and in the process, throw the baby out with the bath-water. Frankly, neither extreme is a desirable situation. In fact, this increases the risk that decisions will be made only to roll them back.

Also, in their desire to stay true to their “aam aadmi” (and aurat) platform, they often seem to ignore practicalities on the ground. For instance, it was only to be expected that thousands of people would want to attend the “janata durbar”. It is a fundamental tenet of planning that you hope for the best but plan for the worst. What was wrong in being prepared for a larger crowd than might eventually show up? Was it just the fear that media might pick up on and report that only a few hundred people showed up? But now, by promising an “online solution”, is the AAP not effectively limiting “jan sampark” to those people who have computers, tablets or phones with internet access? Or at least, to those who can visit a nearby cybercafe and get not just access, but also the assistance in accessing the systems and uploading their complaints. It would be interesting to find out what proportion of “aam janata” has such access- even in Delhi.

Maybe Mr. Kejriwal will consider my suggestion to examine the feasibility of replicating in Delhi what Singapore or South Korea have done in the past- which is to staff key ministries with technocrats who possess relevant experience. Such ministers typically make better decisions because they are professionally qualified in the field they are responsible for.

I am all for a fundamental- but sustainable- change in how governments in India are run. And I wish the AAP becomes the nucleus around which like-minded forces across the country coalesce and unite. Here is one “AK” wishing the very best to another “AK”. 

India’s political smorgasbord

With the Congress announcing its support to the AAP government on the floor of the Delhi assembly, the odds are that Arvind Kejriwal’s fledgling government is not in imminent danger. But to my mind, the actions that the AAP government have taken in the first 3-4 days of its term have raised some questions. Indeed, so has Rahul Gandhi’s penchant for publicly displaying his displeasure about various matters. This time, he railed against against the Maharashtra Congress-NCP government’s decision to reject the Adasrh Society report. As a result, the harried Chief Minister of Maharashtra has gone on record to say that they will partially accept the findings. It remains to be seen if he will also train his guns on party veteran Virbhadra Singh (CM of HP), who has been accused of corruption by the BJP’s Arun Jaitley.

Meanwhile, Modi’s campaign seems to have lost some of its intensity in the past few weeks. Also, apart from accusing UPA II of mismanaging the nation’s economy and corruption, he has said little. I am sure there are many like me who would like to know the BJP’s position on what our foreign policy will be vis-a-vis Sri Lanka, China, Pakistan, the USA etc. Also, what actions do he (and his advisors) have in mind to tame retail inflation?

I’d love your views on these questions…

1. In its hurry to be seen to be fulfilling its poll promises, is AAP guilty of not paying enough attention to the economic consequences of its actions? For example, would it have been more prudent had they clearly declared that the subsidy route is only a short-term measure til they are able to arrange for piped water supply and meters to under-served and unserved parts of Delhi?
2. By supporting the UPA, has the Congress converted its lack of choice into a really smart political move? Let me explain. Even today, Arvinder Singh Lovely of the Delhi Congress said they would support the AAP as long as its policies were pro people and administration corruption-free. By letting the AAP take a series of potentially ill-advised decisions, the Congress could be creating a situation when, in April or May, it can tell the voters of Delhi something along these lines: “We supported the AAP for 4-5 months, and look what they have done. And you anyway know that the BJP is not really an alternative. Ergo, vote for the only party that can provide a stable government”.
3. Several high-profile corporate leaders are reported to have joined AAP. But does the party have the administrative apparatus in place to convert the growing anger of India’s people against corruption and “scam-rajya” into votes (in time for the 2014 polls)?
4. Many in urban India may relate to AAP’s ideology. But will India’s rural voters appreciate it equally? If not, can AAP really make a difference by providing a credible alternative to the BJP and Congress?
5. Will AAP be able to provide the nucleus around which regional parties unite? Or will individual aspirations of regional satraps prevent that kind of coalition? And even if such an alliance is created, can it sustain?
6. By inviting Yeddyurappa to rejoin the party he left in a huff last year (under the cloud of corruption), is the BJP diluting its avowed stand against corruption? Or will the expected gains from Lingayat votes be more than any negative rub-off on voters who tend to view the BJP as less prone to corruption than the Congress?

Tough questions for sure. And I for one do not have the right answers. About a month ago, I would have completely ruled out the possibility of UPA 3. Now, I am not so sure…. I guess only time will tell.

Happy new year!

Another year has ended. And a new one has begun. The show must go on. Who knows what lies in store for us in the minutes, hours, days, weeks and months ahead?! All one can do is to wish that the years ahead- starting with the one that has begun today- will bring you, your families and loved ones, lots of joy, health, peace, progress and prosperity. Here’s wishing you the very best in life!