Anand Krishna’s musings

I am not exactly what you would call “fair” in terms of complexion, but I am still amazed at the fetish for fairness that many Indians seem to have. Milions of Rupees are spent on developing and advertising  products that supposedly enhance one’s complexion and make one look “fairer” (and hence, “more beautiful”). Even more money is spent by consumers on buying such products. I do not know if these products work- and frankly, I am not worried about their efficacy or veracity of advertising claims. I fret more about the kind of messages we are reinforcing in the tender minds of our children- the so called future of India. Why is complexion more important than competence, attitude, poise, or any number of so-called “soft skills”? As a responsible society, do we not try and inculcate in our children values like honesty, cleanliness, work ethic, punctuality and so on? Should we not then also tell them that complexion- which is really skin deep- is not as big a deal as is made out to be?

Here’s my top 8 list:

1. Oil prices
2. Number of vehicles on the road (in spite of the rising fuel prices)
3. Carbon emissions (duh…. because of all the additional vehicles)
4. Number of people infected by HIV
5. Inflation
6. Road accidents (caused by irresponsible youngsters who are more often drunk than sober)
7. Stress in our lives
8. Number of people disenchanted with their careers (even life)

Help me get to 10 please.

It used to be said about consulting firms that they do well no matter what. When the going is good, clients are willing to pay them to try new things; in a downturn, clients turn to consultants for advice (paid, of course!) on how to cut costs, restructure businesses or even find buyers for their companies. [I use the word "consultant" loosely]. In today’s environment, “consultants” have been replaced by outsourced service providers (IT/BPO services). On the one hand, there is pressure to reduce costs- and hence outsource stuff that CEOs and CFOs know can be safely outsourced (because their own peers have been doing it for years). But there is also pressure is from the C-suite on executives to outsource newer areas/functions. Reality is that both the above forces will contribute to the growth of outsourcing at least over the next 5-6 years. What remains to be seen is which of the two forces above will dominate. If the former force dominates, it will be more of the same for providers of outsourced services. If it is the latter, the service providers will need to acquire and develop many more capabilities.

Here are some possibilities:

- Global pharmaceutical players (such as GSK, Pfizer & Merck) may be able to design and produce collateral and even online content in India. The material could be printed in India for a fraction of what it costs in the US or Europe and shipped. Even after you factor shipping costs, savings can easily be of the order of 50%.

- Technical writing (for example, the instruction manual for a new TV or mobile handset) too can be outsourced to a central facility (say in India). Printing too can be done in India and the requisite number of manuals shipped to locations across the world.

If someone is aware of companies that are already doing this, please be so kind as to post comments.

After a long and often acrimonious battle, it appears that Barack Obama has beaten Hillary Clinton to secure the Democratic Party’s nomination. As I said in an earlier blog post, either way, history would have been made. For the Democrats, the real battle begins now. Supporters of both Obama and Hillary must close ranks and unite to put their best foot forward against McCain.

Irrespective of who becomes the next POTUS (President of the United States), it would be fair to say that the first year or so will be especially challenging. The continuing softness in the US economy, and indeed, the global economy, will require skilful management and some bold decisions. The energy crisis, fuelled by the galloping price of crude oil, and the threat to our environment are all other real dangers. There is also, of course, the ever-present danger of terrorism around the world- whether it is motivated by social, economic, political, language or religious considerations.

Whether Obama will choose Hillary as his running mate and whether this combination will beat the Republican combo of McCain and Bobby Jindal, Romney or Crist will only be known in the course of time.  But irrespective of who becomes the next POTUS, I hope that he will address the real issues faced by the US and the world.

The BJP has a wonderful opportunity to prove that it can deliver better governance than either the Congress or JD(S). Whether it will is open to debate. Mr B S Yeddyurappa is hamstrung by the fact that the BJP is 3 seats short of a clear majority, and has to rely on the support of independent candidates, most of whom are Congress, BJP or JD(S) “rebels” who were denied tickets by the parties with who they were originally affiliated. This dependence might cramp his style. But if he and his government take the bold steps required to reduce corruption, improve infrsatructure (not just roads, but also water, sanitation, education etc.),  strengthen  development of rural Karnataka and those parts of the state that have been largely ignored so far, and sort out the myriad ills that plague Bangalore, he can be assured of the undying gratitude- and votes- of the citizens of the state.

The BJP has won 110 of the 224 seats in the Karnataka assembly polls. The Congress bettered its performance compared to last time, and the JD(S) has been all but annihilated. Fears of a hung assembly have been belied; however, although the BJP is projecting Mr B S Yeddyurappa as the next CM (and says he will be sowrn in on May 28th), the party may well need support from others since it has fallen short of absolute majority by just 3 seats.  Who will provide he support, whether the supporters wil be part of the government or will remain “outside” etc. are questions that will be answered over the next few days, as hectic parleys occur in and around Bangalore.

The BJP specifically spoke about its Bangalore agenda, and this may have had a role to play in its performance (although voter turnout in Bangalore was not very heavy). But perhaps more importantly, the BJP benefitted from the “sympathy wave” that was created last year when the JD(S) pulled the rug from under the BJP’s feet. Deve Gowda was seen as being unreasonable and petty. The results will undoubtedly dent his- and the JD(S)’ image. But whether he will learn from his mistakes is quite another question. It will be very unfortunate if the BJP has to turn to him and the JD(S) to form the government. Of course, if it can engineer a vertical split in the JD(S)- now that some stalwarts from the JD(S) have lost- then life may become easier.

But no matter who forms the government in Karnataka, I hope it is focused on the important issues around development, education, infrastructure etc.

By now, HP’s decision to acquire EDS is no longer news; indeed, it is almost two weeks old. And I am somewhat underwhelmed (this word is used frequently by Americans, alhough I am not sure if it is a legitimate word in English vocabulary) by the general lack of coverage beyond the first day or two.

So- if this deal does go through- will it be a big deal? In terms of the deal size, it will be large enough to leave investment bankers, accountants, lawyers and others drooling. But the impact will be more on the IT services industry overall- and consequently, on clients using such services. Here are some thoughts on how suppliers might be impacted:

1. For the first time ever, IBM will see a large competitor that has enough muscle both in hardware and services.
2. This new combine will get access to additional ready-to-use offshore capability in the BPO space (remember EDS acquired Mphasis in the not too distant past?). This of course complements HP’s own India  ops that are significant enough in the IT services space.
3. Large non-India based global Consulting & SI firms such as Accenture, Deloitte, CapGemini and others will have to deal with a new threat- and HP-EDS may have the stomach (and deep pockets) for an intense war.
4. Indian IT services companies like TCS, Infosys, Wipro etc. will have one more 900 pound gorilla to worry about. HP-EDS may become a serious competitor simply because it gets invited to bid for large deals- a space that Indian players have not completely dominated. The same deep pockets mentioned above can cause pain to the highly margin-sensitive Indian players. Erosion in margins also unleashes another dynamic- market capitalization will decline, and with it, Indian companies’ ability to make their own acquisitions overseas.

And what about the impact on client companies? Here too, the impact can be felt in many ways:

1. HP-EDS can unleash a price war by lowering prices in the short run.
2. Offering hardware bundled with software and services can be an attractive proposition for clients, who may get a real option to IBM.
3. EDS clients who may have felt trapped under the weight of long-term contracts may no longer feel an urgent need to switch suppliers.

I am now happy for Rahul Dravid and the Royal Challengers. Just a few thrilling minutes ago, they defeated Dhoni’s Chennai Super Kings by 14 runs, finally moving the needle beyond 2 wins (where they have been stuck for the last month or so). At the end of the Bangalore innings, the target was a modest 127 runs- something that would normally have been a walk in the park for MSD and co. But today, the fates willed otherwise. Aided by unquestionably their best bowling and fielding performance so far in the tournament, the Royal Challengers pulled off a very creditable win. Kumble, whose 4 overs fetched him 3 wickets for a miserly 14 runs, was the deserving man of the match. Dravid top scored in the match, with 47.

With charectristic candour, Dhoni admitted that his team was a tad over-confident. With equally disarming honesty, Dravid acknowledged the relief at finally winning a game. Many of their previous 10 games were close, but that they have won only 3 of their 12 games must surely rankle the entire team. Steyn, Boucher, Misbah, Kumble…. everyone had a smile. And why not? Go Challengers! You still have the opportunity to salvage a wee bit of pride.

This result- and the outcome of the other game today (where Mumbai lost to Punjab by a solitary run)-means that it is still not entirely clear which two teams from among Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and Kolkata will join Jaipur and Mohali in the semi-finals.

The next week or so promises to be even more interesting than the last few weeks have been. Watch this space as the mystery unfolds….

Right from the time Mr S M Krishna and Mr Chandrababu Naidu were respectively chief ministers of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, the two states have been openly competing with each other to attract investment into their jurisdictions, improve infrastructure (at least in Bangalore and Hyderabad), and project the two cities as the more pre-eminent “IT Capital” of India. Both states have seen some success, and although there is no incontrovertible evidence of either state/city being unquestionably ahead, my own view is that Hyderabad has stolen a march on Bangalore at least in terms of infrastructure development. The Hyderabad airport, which was approved a couple of months after the BIAL airport, became operational a good two months before the Bangalore airport (which, for the record, is still not operational).

Both TDP and Congress lost power- ostensibly because Naidu and Krishna were obsessed with their state capitals, and ignored the rest of the states. Drought caused by poor monsoons in 2004 may also have had a hand to play.

This rivalry now seems to have extended to the IPL arena. But sadly, both Bangalore’s Royal Challengers and Hyderabad’s Deccan Chargers seem to be trying to beat each other in the race to the bottom. On paper, both teams have some solid cricketers. But neither team has been able to combine as a unit and consistently bat, bowl and field better than their opponents. Consequently, these two are currently ranked 7 and 8. Bangalore perhaps is worse off because off their lower net run rate, which suffered hugely at the hands of Brendan McCullum in the tournament opener. In the next few weeks it will be clear who is reallyat the bottom of the table.

A little while ago, I saw a TV news headline that said that US President George Bush has linked the current world food shortage/rising food prices to India’s growing prosperity and its large middle class. At a very global, macro-economic level, it is true that as India’s economic power increases due to faster growth relative to nations such as the US, its currency strengthens vis-a-vis the US$, its forex reserves increase, its BOP position becomes more favourable (to India). Consequently, the purchasing power of the Rupee too rises- and India can afford to spen more on foodgrain or edible oil import.

But India’s growing economic clout in world markets is only one part of the equation. Supply of foodgrains has been hit because of drought in Australia (a major wheat producer), growing urbanization in India as well as in other developing countries (which means less land is available for growing food), the trend to diverting corn and other crops for production of ethanol and other biofuels and a general reduction in farm productivity. There is also a move by farmers to grow other cash crops that yield higher profits per unit land than conventional foodgrains such as rice, wheat and corn.

There is also the issue of waste- whether in India, because of a poor supply chain (poor warehouse facilities), or in the US, where average portion sizes tend to be large (not to mention “Texas sized portions”), resulting in a fair amount of waste. In energy-starved societies like India, even refrigerated food sometimes tends to spoil, leading to waste.

Therefore, all told, the argument that India is somehow solely responsible for the current global food crisis is laughable at best and a flawed thought process at worst. But to be fair, I think President Bush was not trying to point an accusatory finger at India. He was only highlighting the other side of globalization.

We are now roughly half-way into the inaugural IPL tournament and expectedly, there have been some upsets and reversals. Of course, the very format of the T20 format increases the odds of upsets. The Jaipur Royals, captained by Shane Warne, have got the better of teams that boasted of a stronger line-up at least on paper. At the other end, Ganguly’s Kolkata Knight Riders have now lost 3 matches, after annihilating Bangalore’s Royal Challengers in the tournament opener to weeks ago.  And in spite of Gilly and Symonds, Hyderabad’s Deccan Chargers are languishing near the bottom of the league (with Bangalore below them).

So is the IPL a success? Or has it failed? I would say that the reality lies somewhere in between. Without a doubt, unknown youngsters from India have got a chance to play with and against some of the world’s best. This will undoubtedly hone their skills and boost their confidence. But at the other end of the spectrum, players like Sachin have not yet taken the field- and the pyrotechnics expected of the Jayasuriya-Tendulkar combo still remain a dream.  There is also the risk of cricket fatigue setting in. International stars leaving at the half-way stage can significantly impact the drawing power of future matches. Tempers flaring on and off the field have resulted in key players like Harbhajan Singh being banned and Warne and Ganguly being fined a part of their match fees. And finally, commercial success of individual franchises remains a question-mark. I think at least half the franchises will find it hard to break even. And that may well determine their willingness to invest in the teams going forward.

At this point, I’d have to say that India and South Africa have evenly shared the honours. When Smith and Amla were at the crease, South Africa was cruising at 152/1 and it would have been a very brave Indian fan who could claim that a sinking feeling had not set in. When I heard the score during lunch at work, my immediate reaction was on the lines of “Oh God- another 500+ total to chase on a potentially dangerous pitch”.

But to have been able to take 9 wickets for 113 runs would have been most satisfying for India. But the battle has only begun. Through this tour, the Indian batting has appeared more brittle than their rivals’. And if we were thrilled at the purchase Ishant got today from the pitch, well, think about what Steyn, Ntini- or perhaps more so, Morkel with his reverse swinging deliveries can do- especially in the morning session, when the South Africans are fresh, and so is the wicket. In my mind, how the Indian openers negotiate the first session will be crucial to the outcome of the match (and series, I might add). Through this tour, Smith and Mckenzie have given the Proteas a solid start- something India has sorely missed (Sehwag’s triple ton being the solitary exception so far).

India’s goal must be first not to concede a lead and then if that is achieved, to maximize its own lead. Batting 4th (which India will need to do) will be a nightmare, if today is anything to go by. And if we are trying to level the series or keep the margin of defeat to 0-1, batting 4th will be even less fun (unless you are a South African cricket supporter).

The Proteas have been among the most successful cricket teams in India. And that is saying a lot, given that even Steve Waugh’s all-conquering Australians viewed India as the final frontier. After their good performance in Australia a couple of months ago, Team India must justifiably have been on Cloud Nine. And their batting display at Chennai would have given them even more confidence. But that’s the beauty of cricket- one bad session can destroy any team’s morale. And that is exactly what happened last week at Ahmedabad. In less than 2 hours, India collapsed for 76 runs. Worse, South Africa piled on the runs- and misery- and finally won the match by an innings and 90 runs.

Not surprisingly, Team India is quite nervous on the eve of the series decider that starts at Kanpur tomorrow. Adding to their on-field performance is the question of fitnes of key players. First Sachin and now Kumble are likely to sit out. Ishant and Sreesanth are both fit- but the former hasn’t played a match since his return to India and the latter was not in the least penetrating at either Chennai or Ahmedabad. The South Africans have a mean 3-pronged pace attack, with Steyn and Ntini the spearheads. They can be dangerous on a green top, and even more so if the wicket does not offer much bounce and the ball keeps low.  India’s spinners too have not exactly decimated  the opposition in this series. Which therefore also makes it difficult for the BCCI (or Kumble) to suggest what kind of a wicket they would prefer- something that offers pace and bounce or something that is likely to crack in a day or two. Hobson’s choice, if you ask me. Finally, I think it will come down to which team bats more sensibly.

For the sake of Indian cricket fans, I hope the team shows more spunk than it has so far. But as always, may the team that plays better cricket over the 5 days, win. If India loses, it means without doubt that the Proteas, and not India, are deserving of the Number 2 spot on the ICC test rankings.

In the latest reshuffle of the union cabinet, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has inducted former bureaucrat and Raja Sabha member MS Gill as Minister of State for Sports & Youth Affairs. It is well known that Mani Shankar Aiyar (himself a former IFS officer), who was the previous holder of the Sports & Youth Affairs portfolio was a reluctant Sports minister. His utterances on the irrelevance of the Commonwealth Games to India and more recently, on his inability to change things in the IHF as it is an autonomous body under the IOA are fairly well documented by the media.

Granted that MS Gill (who has also held the position of Chief Election Commissioner) is a more avid sports enthusiast than Mani Shankar Aiyar. He has been a mountaineer, has dabbled in hockey and cricket at the school level etc. He was even part of the official delegation that accompanied the Indian contingent to the Mexico Olympics nearly 40 years ago. But unless he takes urgent action to shake up India’s sports establishment, will anything change?

I’d recommend that he focuses on the following aspects:

1. Ask SAI to get every body that supposedly mnages various sports in India to develop an action plan focusing on improving perfromance in the short, medium and long-term goals.  Medium-term goals could include doubling the number of olympic gold medals in 2012, and thereafter, target a 25% increase in every subsequent olympics.  Bold and audacious? yes. But do we have a choice?
2. Get former sportspersons more actively involved  in developing the sport- whether as coaches, advisors etc. Clearly, a good player is not automatically a good coach and vice versa. But former players will understand the pulse better.
3. Actively scout for talent across the country. In certain sports, rural India may be a better breeding ground.
4. Seek corporate partcipation in developing sports other than cricket.
5. Make it mandaory for media to carry sports other than cricket. Goes against the grain of free market thinking? Yes- but again, how else do we persuade TV channels to broadcast other sports?
6. Hire the best coaches, dietitians, sports psychologists, trainers and so on to work with our budding talent in all levels. In many sports, half-baked knowledge of nutrition may be the reason for athletes ending up positive on doping tests- their coaches think something is OK when it is not.
7. Make it attractive for sportspersons in games other than cricket to pursue their sport on a professional basis, so that they are assured of financial security. Take care of insurance, healthcare etc.

Good luck, Mr Gill. Let’s see if your stint is a turning point for Indian sports.

Last week, Eliot Spitzer, the Governor of New York state, resigned because his romps with Ashley Alexandra Dupré, reportedly a “high class hooker”, became public. According to reports, Spitzer paid close to $4500 for the pleasure of her company. For the record, she was called “Kristen” and he was just “Client 9″. Of course, all hell broke loose when Ashley discovered who she was “doing” and announced her discovery at the agency she worked through.

Spitzer, who went after Wall Street firms a couple of years ago and is credited with quite a bit of cleaning up in the world of high finance, was spoken of as a potential presidential candidate. Sexcapades per se are not uncommon among public figures; in this case, the fact that he was a married man and had painstakingly built a facade of being clean and above board is what led to his undoing. Another example of momentary lapses in judgment destroying a promising career.

While Spitzer’s career might go down in flames, Ashley’s career seems to be on the ascent. Her album sales have gone through the roof and reportedly, she has a $1M offer from Hustler magazine.

For lots more of the gory details, visit:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/12/eliot-spitzers-kristen-_n_91162.html