The number of subsidized LPG cylinders per year goes back to 12

There was much speculation in Indian media that the PM acceded to Rahul Gandhi’s “request” made during the latter’s speech today at the AICC session in New Delhi. How naive can our journalists and analysts get!? The decision to reduce it from 12 to 9 was made one year ago- the thinking within the UPA/Congress must have been on the lines of “Let us see how we fare in the next one year. If we feel that we are losing ground, we can use this as a lever and hopefully, gain some votes by raising the number back to 12 closer to the elections”. At a time when the Finance Minister and PM have so often expressed their concern about the ballooning fiscal deficit and the need to cut it down, a decision like this, which would add at least around Rs3000 crores to the country’s subsidy bill, is clearly not good economics. But then in politics- and during desperate times, politics is known to trump economics. [Of course, the government can always increase the prices of petrol and diesel and reduce some of the burden of the enhanced LPG subsidy. But that would be an unpopular decision to take 3 months before national elections. What’s that about robbing Peter to pay Paul?].

If the Congress forms the next government- though at this time, the possibility seems unlikely- this subsidy may be revisited in the name of fiscal discipline and we may go back to 9 subsidized LPG cylinders per year. But if they don’t- then this is like a “scorched earth policy”, for it leaves the next government with very little wiggle room. If the new government does take steps to cut down the number of subsidized LPG cylinders to 9, the Congress (in the Opposition) will cry hoarse about how it stood for the aam aadmi, while the BJP (or maybe the AAP) that has formed the government, is not.

Forgive me, dear reader, for I must admit that I have not a shred of evidence to back my hypothesis (or should I again say “speculation”?).

Not AAP-bashing, just an “aap-osite” view perhaps…..

The Aam Aadmi Party’s motives are unquestionably noble. But given that very few members of AAP have the administrative experience relevant to run a government ably, there is a danger that the ministers may rely excessively on the bureaucracy or become so suspicious of babudom’s motives that they look at every suggestion with skepticism and in the process, throw the baby out with the bath-water. Frankly, neither extreme is a desirable situation. In fact, this increases the risk that decisions will be made only to roll them back.

Also, in their desire to stay true to their “aam aadmi” (and aurat) platform, they often seem to ignore practicalities on the ground. For instance, it was only to be expected that thousands of people would want to attend the “janata durbar”. It is a fundamental tenet of planning that you hope for the best but plan for the worst. What was wrong in being prepared for a larger crowd than might eventually show up? Was it just the fear that media might pick up on and report that only a few hundred people showed up? But now, by promising an “online solution”, is the AAP not effectively limiting “jan sampark” to those people who have computers, tablets or phones with internet access? Or at least, to those who can visit a nearby cybercafe and get not just access, but also the assistance in accessing the systems and uploading their complaints. It would be interesting to find out what proportion of “aam janata” has such access- even in Delhi.

Maybe Mr. Kejriwal will consider my suggestion to examine the feasibility of replicating in Delhi what Singapore or South Korea have done in the past- which is to staff key ministries with technocrats who possess relevant experience. Such ministers typically make better decisions because they are professionally qualified in the field they are responsible for.

I am all for a fundamental- but sustainable- change in how governments in India are run. And I wish the AAP becomes the nucleus around which like-minded forces across the country coalesce and unite. Here is one “AK” wishing the very best to another “AK”. 

India’s political smorgasbord

With the Congress announcing its support to the AAP government on the floor of the Delhi assembly, the odds are that Arvind Kejriwal’s fledgling government is not in imminent danger. But to my mind, the actions that the AAP government have taken in the first 3-4 days of its term have raised some questions. Indeed, so has Rahul Gandhi’s penchant for publicly displaying his displeasure about various matters. This time, he railed against against the Maharashtra Congress-NCP government’s decision to reject the Adasrh Society report. As a result, the harried Chief Minister of Maharashtra has gone on record to say that they will partially accept the findings. It remains to be seen if he will also train his guns on party veteran Virbhadra Singh (CM of HP), who has been accused of corruption by the BJP’s Arun Jaitley.

Meanwhile, Modi’s campaign seems to have lost some of its intensity in the past few weeks. Also, apart from accusing UPA II of mismanaging the nation’s economy and corruption, he has said little. I am sure there are many like me who would like to know the BJP’s position on what our foreign policy will be vis-a-vis Sri Lanka, China, Pakistan, the USA etc. Also, what actions do he (and his advisors) have in mind to tame retail inflation?

I’d love your views on these questions…

1. In its hurry to be seen to be fulfilling its poll promises, is AAP guilty of not paying enough attention to the economic consequences of its actions? For example, would it have been more prudent had they clearly declared that the subsidy route is only a short-term measure til they are able to arrange for piped water supply and meters to under-served and unserved parts of Delhi?
2. By supporting the UPA, has the Congress converted its lack of choice into a really smart political move? Let me explain. Even today, Arvinder Singh Lovely of the Delhi Congress said they would support the AAP as long as its policies were pro people and administration corruption-free. By letting the AAP take a series of potentially ill-advised decisions, the Congress could be creating a situation when, in April or May, it can tell the voters of Delhi something along these lines: “We supported the AAP for 4-5 months, and look what they have done. And you anyway know that the BJP is not really an alternative. Ergo, vote for the only party that can provide a stable government”.
3. Several high-profile corporate leaders are reported to have joined AAP. But does the party have the administrative apparatus in place to convert the growing anger of India’s people against corruption and “scam-rajya” into votes (in time for the 2014 polls)?
4. Many in urban India may relate to AAP’s ideology. But will India’s rural voters appreciate it equally? If not, can AAP really make a difference by providing a credible alternative to the BJP and Congress?
5. Will AAP be able to provide the nucleus around which regional parties unite? Or will individual aspirations of regional satraps prevent that kind of coalition? And even if such an alliance is created, can it sustain?
6. By inviting Yeddyurappa to rejoin the party he left in a huff last year (under the cloud of corruption), is the BJP diluting its avowed stand against corruption? Or will the expected gains from Lingayat votes be more than any negative rub-off on voters who tend to view the BJP as less prone to corruption than the Congress?

Tough questions for sure. And I for one do not have the right answers. About a month ago, I would have completely ruled out the possibility of UPA 3. Now, I am not so sure…. I guess only time will tell.

AAP jaisa koi India ki zindagi mein aaye to baat ban jaaye…

Mr. Arvind Kejriwal has become CM of Delhi after a public swearing-in ceremony at Ramlila maidan. He and his family took the Delhi metro to the venue, as has been widely reported across national media. Soon after becoming CM, he effected a bureaucratic shuffle. He issued instructions against the “lal batti” and personal security for ministers, MLAs etc. So far, the AAP has maintained its image of a party in a hurry to cleanse Indian politics of all that’s evil- one state at a time. There have even been signs of rapprochement (albeit guarded and perhaps grudging, it must be said) from Anna Hazare’s camp.

A new broom, it is said, sweeps well (no pun intended with reference to the AAP’s symbol). The key question is whether it will continue to sweep well even after it has become a little old. I raise this not because I feel that Mr. Kejriwal and his colleagues will tire or become a part of the same “kichad” they are out to clean. My concern stems from the fact that meaningful and sustainable change takes time- the one thing that the AAP is in short supply of- but needs the most. Even if Delhi’s DISCOMs are audited and a reduction in electricity tariff is possible, it will take time to address the issue of pilferage and T&D losses. Similarly, ensuring that water and sewage pipes are laid all across Delhi (so that the 700 litres per day promise is kept) is not something that can be done in a week or two. Or even a month or two. Even if AAP initiates action in January, by the time, people start seeing the results, it will be 2015, if not later. By that time, the BJP and Congress will start to paint pictures of AAP’s ineffectiveness. Claims of empty promises will be leveled against the AAP- never mind that those parties too haven’t exactly covered themselves with glory when they were in power.

Whether AAP can scale up to become a nationally potent political force before the next Lok Sabha polls is up for debate. But irrespective of its ability to do so, one thing is clear: this AAP movement has provided a nucleus around which India’s intelligentsia and admittedly, urban middle class- can coalesce- and make it pretty darn awkward for the larger, mainstream parties. This movement can also, in my view, impact regional parties (unless they choose to ally with AAP).

The next general elections in India represent a singular opportunity for a large chunk of India’s traditionally “don’t care, won’t vote” middle class to make it clear to India’s political class that nothing is immune to change- not even Indian politics.

India’s shifting socio-political perspectives

The success of the Aam Aadmi party (AAP) in the recent Assembly polls in Delhi has certainly stirred the pot that is Indian politics. India’s voters have started to see through traditional vote-gathering promises. Perhaps because India’s socialist policies have worked to some extent (and India’s masses are now more informed and hence getting more engaged with the political processes of as democracy). Or perhaps it is because crusaders like Anna Hazare and the cadre of AAP have worked hard to bring issues like corruption and lack of governance front and center. In both cases, an increasingly activist media whose reach has widened due to the seemingly all-pervasive presence of social media is playing a role in keeping core issues in the cross-hairs. Irrespective of cause, a likely outcome is that India might soon get a Lokpal Bill. It may not be what Anna or Arvind Kejriwal would have liked- but at least, it is a start and in the years ahead, it can be tweaked.

Every political party is currently rethinking its electoral calculus. By positioning itself as the party that helped bring to life a Lokpal bill, can the BJP or Congress bask in reflected glory? By saying that it will seek legal/legislative measures to decriminalize what has been recriminalized following the Supreme Court’s recent decision on Sec. 377 of the Indian Penal Code, can the Congress create a vote-bank amongst India’s LGBT population (estimated to be around 7-10%- not an insignificant number in terms of swaying election results)? Only time will tell…

Another positive fallout of AAP’s success is that the larger parties are busy looking for credible candidates from outside their traditional lists- people who are perceived to be clean, are achievers in their own rights, have mass appeal (at least among certain segments of the electorate) etc. Whether these individuals will win and if they do, whether they will succeed in cleaning the Augean Stables of Indian politics is another question altogether…

We have seen a much higher turnout amongst youngsters- usually, a very ambivalent set of voters. One hopes the trend will continue and we will see many more youngsters exercising their franchise and thus actively shape the future of governance in India.

From a socio-political perspective, these are surely interesting times… one hopes that the possibilities that can emerge will not be stifled even before they see the light of day.

 

AAP aaye bahaar aayi….?

As the dust settles down on poll victory parties, post-mortem analyses and of course, both chest thumping and chest beating on media, both AAP and India’s electorate must introspect- and be prepared to act.

AAP’s performance in Delhi must have surpassed its own expectations; clearly, the Aam Aadmi Party’s sterling performance has caused the Congress (and the BJP, despite its victory) to lose sleep. Was their success because of the large number of motivated volunteers who spent several days campaigning from door to door and talking about the need to eradicate corruption? I am sure a lot had to do with that. Was it because their larger rivals poked fun of AAP and derided its very existence? That too must have spurred on the AAP cadre. Was it because of the transparency displayed in fund-raising and reporting? Maybe- for it sent a signal that this party lives by what it says (at least thus far). Was it because Arvind Kejriwal is seen as a relentless crusader who has taken on “the system”?

The biggest reason for its stupendous victory- in my opinion- is that it gives people hope. So many times I have heard voters (both highly educated and otherwise) bemoan the lack of real and credible alternatives to existing politicians and parties. This is what AAP promises to do- provide the Indian electorate with a credible alternative that is not married to vested interests that prevent inflation from being controlled, black money from being brought back to India and scam after scam occurring with seemingly little accountability attached to the perps.

Pundits say that AAP will not be ready to face the Lok Sabha polls in the next 4-5 months. Perhaps. But if its volunteers rally around the way they did for the Delhi polls, the 2014 general elections may see many AAP candidates voted to the Lok Sabha. The question is if they will be able to make enough inroads among the rural electorate of this country.

A new broom, it is said sweeps well… but to borrow from a Hindi movie song from 3 or 4 decades ago, is it too early to say “AAP aayi bahaar aayi…?”